Predictions / Football / Germany. 2. Frauen Bundesliga / Bochum vs Borussia Monchengladbach W

Prediction Audit: Bochum vs Borussia Monchengladbach W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bochum Bochum
May 10, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 42%
Borussia Monchengladbach W Borussia Monchengladbach W

The model missed the final outcome (Borussia Monchengladbach W win 1–4).

The model had projected Bochum at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Bochum Borussia Monchengladbach W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-0 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned Bochum; match finished Borussia Monchengladbach W

Market lesson

The full-time result was Borussia Monchengladbach W win 1–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 04, 2026 · 01:34 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Bochum 1.45 — Borussia Monchengladbach W 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Borussia Monchengladbach W win · 1–4
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 19:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1917513

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Borussia Monchengladbach W win · Bochum 1–4 Borussia Monchengladbach W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 2. Frauen Bundesliga
  • Fixture: Bochum vs Borussia Monchengladbach W
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Bochum 1.45 — Borussia Monchengladbach W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 42.3% · Over 2.5 57.7%); BTTS No (Yes 38.4% · No 61.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 38.4% · No 61.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.1%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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2. Frauen Bundesliga 2. Frauen Bundesliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Stuttgart 26 17 7 2 58
2 Mainz 05 26 17 4 5 55
3 SC Sand W 26 16 5 5 53
4 Meppen 26 15 4 7 49
5 Viktoria Berlin W 26 12 9 5 45
6 Andernach W 26 10 8 8 38
7 Ingolstadt 26 12 2 12 38
8 Eintracht Frankfurt II W 26 9 6 11 33
9 Bochum 26 9 5 12 32
10 Borussia Monchengladbach W 26 9 4 13 31
11 Turbine Potsdam W 26 9 3 14 30
12 Bayern München II W 26 8 3 15 27
13 Wolfsburg II W 26 6 1 19 19
14 Warbeyen 26 1 3 22 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Stuttgart 26 81 33 +48 58
2 Mainz 05 26 77 29 +48 55
3 Meppen 26 56 26 +30 49
4 SC Sand W 26 53 26 +27 53
5 Andernach W 26 46 44 +2 38
6 Ingolstadt 26 45 48 -3 38
7 Viktoria Berlin W 26 41 20 +21 45
8 Bayern München II W 26 40 64 -24 27
9 Borussia Monchengladbach W 26 39 53 -14 31
10 Eintracht Frankfurt II W 26 38 38 0 33
11 Wolfsburg II W 26 38 75 -37 19
12 Turbine Potsdam W 26 37 50 -13 30
13 Bochum 26 33 40 -7 32
14 Warbeyen 26 21 99 -78 6
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