Predictions / Football / Turkey. 2. Lig / Muğlaspor vs Ankaraspor

Prediction Audit: Muğlaspor vs Ankaraspor Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Muğlaspor Muğlaspor
Jan 17, 2026 - 12:00
1 0.74
0 0.61
xG Accuracy: 79%
Ankaraspor Ankaraspor

The model missed the final outcome (Muğlaspor win 1–0).

The model had projected Draw at 42.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Draw Muğlaspor ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.35, 1 goals)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Draw; match finished Muğlaspor

Market lesson

The full-time result was Muğlaspor win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · Muğlaspor 0.74 — Ankaraspor 0.61
  2. Jan 17, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Muğlaspor win · 1–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 06, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3124612

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Muğlaspor win · Muğlaspor 1–0 Ankaraspor
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Back to Predictions
2. Lig 2. Lig — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Batman Petrolspor 36 25 8 3 83
2 Muğlaspor 36 21 9 6 72
3 Elazığspor 36 21 6 9 69
4 Adana 1954 FK 36 19 10 7 67
5 Şanlıurfaspor 36 19 8 9 65
6 Ankaragucu 36 18 9 9 63
7 İnegölspor 36 16 12 8 60
8 Erzin Spor 36 16 8 12 56
9 Halide Edip Adıvar 36 13 15 8 54
10 Ankaraspor 36 13 13 10 52
11 24 Erzincanspor 36 15 6 15 51
12 Kastamonuspor 1966 36 11 9 16 42
13 Karacabey Belediyespor 36 11 8 17 41
14 Altınordu 36 8 11 17 35
15 Erbaaspor 36 10 7 19 34
16 Tuzlaspor 36 8 6 22 30
17 Kepez Belediyespor 36 5 8 23 23
18 Karaman Belediyespor 36 4 9 23 21
19 Buca FK 36 4 8 24 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Batman Petrolspor 36 86 33 +53 83
2 Elazığspor 36 82 37 +45 69
3 İnegölspor 36 67 44 +23 60
4 Ankaraspor 36 64 54 +10 52
5 Şanlıurfaspor 36 63 43 +20 65
6 Adana 1954 FK 36 55 35 +20 67
7 24 Erzincanspor 36 55 49 +6 51
8 Ankaragucu 36 52 41 +11 63
9 Muğlaspor 36 51 19 +32 72
10 Erzin Spor 36 50 44 +6 56
11 Karacabey Belediyespor 36 46 55 -9 41
12 Halide Edip Adıvar 36 45 35 +10 54
13 Kastamonuspor 1966 36 44 56 -12 42
14 Erbaaspor 36 40 61 -21 34
15 Buca FK 36 38 76 -38 17
16 Tuzlaspor 36 37 66 -29 30
17 Altınordu 36 33 59 -26 35
18 Kepez Belediyespor 36 33 78 -45 23
19 Karaman Belediyespor 36 30 86 -56 21
2. Lig Turkey. 2. Lig Predictions