Predictions / Football / Macedonia. Second League / Vardar Negotino vs Kozuv Gevgelija

Prediction Audit: Vardar Negotino vs Kozuv Gevgelija Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Vardar Negotino Vardar Negotino
May 23, 2026 - 14:30
0 1.45
5 1.25
xG Accuracy: 24%
Kozuv Gevgelija Kozuv Gevgelija

The model missed the final outcome (Kozuv Gevgelija win 0–5).

The model had projected Vardar Negotino at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Vardar Negotino Kozuv Gevgelija ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 0-2, 1-1, 1-3, 0-1 0-5 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Vardar Negotino; match finished Kozuv Gevgelija
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Kozuv Gevgelija win 0–5, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 19:17 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Vardar Negotino 1.45 — Kozuv Gevgelija 1.25
  2. May 23, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Kozuv Gevgelija win · 0–5
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 00:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1660697

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kozuv Gevgelija win · Vardar Negotino 0–5 Kozuv Gevgelija
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Second League
  • Fixture: Vardar Negotino vs Kozuv Gevgelija
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Vardar Negotino 1.45 — Kozuv Gevgelija 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 33.0% · Over 2.5 67.0%); BTTS No (Yes 40.0% · No 60.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 40.0% · No 60.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (9.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Shkëndija Haraçinë 29 20 6 3 66
2 Bregalnica Štip 29 20 5 4 65
3 Skopje 28 21 2 5 65
4 Ohrid 29 20 5 4 65
5 Belasica 29 17 4 9 55
6 Osogovo 29 16 5 8 53
7 Detonit Plachkovica 29 15 7 8 52
8 Novaci 29 15 5 9 50
9 Kozuv Gevgelija 29 11 9 9 42
10 Teteks 29 12 3 14 39
11 Sasa 29 9 9 11 36
12 Vardar Negotino 29 6 4 19 22
13 FK Prespa Resen 29 5 0 24 15
14 Sloga Vinica 29 4 3 22 15
15 Pobeda 30 4 2 24 14
16 Golemo Konjari 29 2 1 26 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ohrid 29 71 15 +56 65
2 Bregalnica Štip 29 64 18 +46 65
3 Shkëndija Haraçinë 29 63 18 +45 66
4 Skopje 28 59 18 +41 65
5 Belasica 29 54 22 +32 55
6 Detonit Plachkovica 29 52 23 +29 52
7 Osogovo 29 50 24 +26 53
8 Teteks 29 49 42 +7 39
9 Kozuv Gevgelija 29 45 26 +19 42
10 Novaci 29 44 28 +16 50
11 Sasa 29 44 49 -5 36
12 Vardar Negotino 29 37 90 -53 22
13 Sloga Vinica 29 30 77 -47 15
14 FK Prespa Resen 29 29 73 -44 15
15 Pobeda 30 21 105 -84 14
16 Golemo Konjari 29 15 103 -88 7