The model missed the final outcome (Westerlo U21 win 0–7).
The model had projected RFC de Liege U21 at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 RFC de Liege U21 Westerlo U21 ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-3, 0-2, 0-3, 1-4 0-7 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RFC de Liege U21 | 41.8% | 5.4% | +36.4 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 25.7% | 8.7% | +16.9 pp | Model Edge |
| Westerlo U21 | 32.6% | 85.9% | -53.3 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Westerlo U21's win probability at 85.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 53.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Westerlo U21 win 0–7.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 7 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on RFC de Liege U21 by 53.3 percentage points (95.1% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
May 15, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · RFC de Liege U21 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Westerlo U21 32.6%
- xG · RFC de Liege U21 1.45 — Westerlo U21 1.25
-
May 15, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · RFC de Liege U21 16.89 · Draw 10.43 · Westerlo U21 1.06
- Implied 1X2 · RFC de Liege U21 5.4% · Draw 8.7% · Westerlo U21 85.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 15, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · RFC de Liege U21 16.89 · Draw 10.43 · Westerlo U21 1.06
- Implied 1X2 · RFC de Liege U21 5.4% · Draw 8.7% · Westerlo U21 85.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 15, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Westerlo U21 win · 0–7
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (53 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Reserve Pro League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lommel U21 | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 47 |
| 1 | Patro Eisden U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2 | Westerlo U21 | 22 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 47 |
| 3 | Kortrijk U21 | 21 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 41 |
| 3 | Francs Borains U21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | RWDM U21 | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 41 |
| 4 | RAAL La Louviere U21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | RFC Seraing Reserve U21 | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 40 |
| 7 | Waasland-Beveren U21 | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 29 |
| 8 | Lierse K. U21 | 21 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 28 |
| 10 | K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 | 21 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 23 |
| 12 | Sporting Charleroi II | 20 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 14 |
| 13 | RFC de Liege U21 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 9 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kortrijk U21 | 21 | 66 | 30 | +36 | 41 |
| 2 | RFC Seraing Reserve U21 | 23 | 61 | 36 | +25 | 40 |
| 3 | RWDM U21 | 22 | 50 | 30 | +20 | 41 |
| 4 | Lommel U21 | 21 | 47 | 22 | +25 | 47 |
| 5 | Westerlo U21 | 22 | 46 | 32 | +14 | 47 |
| 6 | Waasland-Beveren U21 | 22 | 44 | 37 | +7 | 29 |
| 7 | K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 | 21 | 43 | 47 | -4 | 23 |
| 8 | Lierse K. U21 | 21 | 40 | 45 | -5 | 28 |
| 9 | Sporting Charleroi II | 20 | 26 | 52 | -26 | 14 |
| 10 | RFC de Liege U21 | 21 | 26 | 81 | -55 | 9 |
| 11 | Patro Eisden U21 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Francs Borains U21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | RAAL La Louviere U21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
