Predictions / Football / Saudi-Arabia. Pro League / Al-Fateh vs Al Najma

Prediction Audit: Al-Fateh vs Al Najma Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Al-Fateh Al-Fateh
May 14, 2026 - 15:55
2 2.54
0 0.88
xG Accuracy: 68%
Al Najma Al Najma

AI correctly predicted the Al-Fateh win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Al-Fateh Al-Fateh ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 1-0, 3-1 2-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Al Najma higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Al Najma -7.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Al-Fateh 72.4% 65.1% +7.3 pp Model Higher
Draw 17.7% 17.6% +0.2 pp Aligned
Al Najma 9.9% 17.3% -7.5 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Al Najma's win probability at 17.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 9.9%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Al-Fateh win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Al Najma. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Al-Fateh attacking xG significantly stronger (2.54 vs 0.88)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Al-Fateh higher (79.9% vs model 72.4%, 7.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Al-Fateh win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 13, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Al-Fateh 72.4% · Draw 17.7% · Al Najma 9.9%
    • xG · Al-Fateh 2.54 — Al Najma 0.88
  2. May 13, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Al-Fateh 1.43 · Draw 5.30 · Al Najma 5.37
    • Implied 1X2 · Al-Fateh 65.1% · Draw 17.6% · Al Najma 17.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 13, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Al-Fateh 1.43 · Draw 5.30 · Al Najma 5.37
    • Implied 1X2 · Al-Fateh 65.1% · Draw 17.6% · Al Najma 17.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 14, 2026 · 15:55 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Al-Fateh win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 63/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pass
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (88%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 62/100
Betting Confidence 66/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 15:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1469166

Closing Odds 5.37
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Al-Fateh win · Al-Fateh 2–0 Al Najma
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Pro League
  • Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Najma
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-13 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 72.4% · Draw 17.7% · Away 9.9%
  • xG (showing): Al-Fateh 2.54 — Al Najma 0.88 (total xG ≈ 3.42)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 45.1% · Implied: 38.6% · Probability edge: +6.5 pts · Est. EV: +15.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.9% · No 45.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-0 (10.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Pro League Pro League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al-Nassr 34 28 2 4 86
2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34 25 9 0 84
3 Al-Ahli Jeddah 34 25 6 3 81
4 Al-Qadisiyah FC 34 23 8 3 77
5 Al-Ittihad FC 34 16 7 11 55
6 Al Taawon 34 15 8 11 53
7 Al-Ettifaq 34 14 8 12 50
8 NEOM 34 12 9 13 45
9 Al-Hazm 34 11 9 14 42
10 Al-Fayha 34 10 8 16 38
11 Al-Fateh 34 9 10 15 37
12 Al Khaleej Saihat 34 10 7 17 37
13 Al Shabab 34 8 11 15 35
14 Al Kholood 34 9 6 19 33
15 Al Riyadh 34 7 9 18 30
16 Damac 34 6 11 17 29
17 Al Akhdoud 34 5 5 24 20
18 Al Najma 34 3 7 24 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al-Nassr 34 91 28 +63 86
2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34 85 27 +58 84
3 Al-Qadisiyah FC 34 83 34 +49 77
4 Al-Ahli Jeddah 34 71 25 +46 81
5 Al Taawon 34 59 46 +13 53
6 Al-Ittihad FC 34 55 48 +7 55
7 Al Khaleej Saihat 34 54 62 -8 37
8 Al-Ettifaq 34 51 55 -4 50
9 Al Shabab 34 44 57 -13 35
10 NEOM 34 43 48 -5 45
11 Al-Fayha 34 41 54 -13 38
12 Al-Fateh 34 41 55 -14 37
13 Al Kholood 34 39 61 -22 33
14 Al-Hazm 34 38 57 -19 42
15 Al Riyadh 34 35 63 -28 30
16 Damac 34 32 55 -23 29
17 Al Najma 34 32 76 -44 16
18 Al Akhdoud 34 27 70 -43 20
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Al-Nassr 34 69.8 26.0 +43.8 86
2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34 68.9 25.9 +43.0 84
3 Al-Ahli Jeddah 34 62.4 26.7 +35.7 81
4 Al-Qadisiyah FC 34 62.9 35.2 +27.7 77
5 Al-Ittihad FC 34 49.5 41.2 +8.3 55
6 NEOM 34 45.8 39.4 +6.4 45
7 Al Shabab 34 44.1 44.7 -0.6 35
8 Al Taawon 34 42.0 44.7 -2.7 53
9 Al Khaleej Saihat 34 42.6 46.3 -3.7 37
10 Al-Fateh 34 42.5 49.6 -7.1 37
11 Al Riyadh 34 41.4 50.5 -9.1 30
12 Al-Fayha 34 33.3 43.4 -10.1 38
13 Al-Hazm 34 34.1 47.4 -13.3 42
14 Damac 34 25.1 38.5 -13.4 29
15 Al-Ettifaq 34 39.0 56.5 -17.5 50
16 Al Kholood 34 33.2 51.5 -18.3 33
17 Al Najma 34 28.1 61.0 -32.9 16
18 Al Akhdoud 34 26.8 62.8 -36.0 20