The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 55.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 1-3, 2-2, 0-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.43 — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.28
-
Feb 09, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
51/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
- High xG deviation from league baseline (69%+)
Evidence
★★★★★
- Moderate model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
53/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0–0 Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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AFC Champions League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 22 |
| 2 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 3 | Tractor Sazi | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | Al-Ittihad FC | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Al Wahda FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Al-Duhail SC | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | Al Sadd | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 9 | Sharjah FC | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 9 | Gharraf | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 10 | Al-Gharafa | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 11 | Al Shorta | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 12 | Nasaf | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Ittihad FC | 8 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 15 |
| 2 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 8 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 17 |
| 3 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 8 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 22 |
| 4 | Al-Duhail SC | 8 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 8 |
| 5 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 8 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Tractor Sazi | 8 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 17 |
| 7 | Al Sadd | 8 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 8 |
| 8 | Al Wahda FC | 8 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 9 | Nasaf | 8 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 4 |
| 10 | Sharjah FC | 8 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 8 |
| 11 | Gharraf | 6 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Al-Gharafa | 8 | 7 | 21 | -14 | 6 |
| 13 | Al Shorta | 8 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 5 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Ittihad FC | 8 | 6.2 | 2.2 | +4.0 | 15 |
| 2 | Al Sadd | 8 | 4.7 | 2.7 | +2.0 | 8 |
| 3 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | +1.8 | 17 |
| 4 | Al-Duhail SC | 8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | +1.2 | 8 |
| 5 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 8 | 2.2 | 1.8 | +0.4 | 22 |
| 6 | Nasaf | 8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | +0.1 | 4 |
| 7 | Sharjah FC | 8 | 1.6 | 2.2 | -0.6 | 8 |
| 8 | Al Shorta | 8 | 2.3 | 3.0 | -0.7 | 5 |
| 9 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 8 | 2.3 | 3.2 | -0.9 | 11 |
| 10 | Tractor Sazi | 8 | 2.6 | 3.6 | -1.0 | 17 |
| 11 | Al Wahda FC | 8 | 1.4 | 2.7 | -1.3 | 14 |
| 12 | Al-Gharafa | 8 | 1.2 | 6.1 | -4.9 | 6 |
| 13 | Gharraf | 6 | — | — | — | 6 |
