Predictions / Football / Netherlands. Derde Divisie - Sunday / Groene Ster vs ASWH

Prediction Audit: Groene Ster vs ASWH Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Groene Ster Groene Ster
May 23, 2026 - 13:30
3 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
ASWH ASWH

AI correctly predicted the Groene Ster win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Groene Ster Groene Ster ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Groene Ster higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Groene Ster -15.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Groene Ster 41.8% 57.1% -15.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 21.3% +4.4 pp Aligned
ASWH 32.6% 21.6% +11.0 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Groene Ster's win probability at 57.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 15.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Groene Ster win 3–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Groene Ster than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Groene Ster higher (57.2% vs model 41.8%, 15.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Groene Ster win 3–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 19:22 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Groene Ster 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · ASWH 32.6%
    • xG · Groene Ster 1.45 — ASWH 1.25
  2. May 23, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Groene Ster 1.57 · Draw 4.22 · ASWH 4.15
    • Implied 1X2 · Groene Ster 57.1% · Draw 21.3% · ASWH 21.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 23, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Groene Ster 1.57 · Draw 4.22 · ASWH 4.15
    • Implied 1X2 · Groene Ster 57.1% · Draw 21.3% · ASWH 21.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 23, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Groene Ster win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 23/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 21:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1766666

Closing Odds 1.57
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Groene Ster win · Groene Ster 3–1 ASWH
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Derde Divisie - Sunday
  • Fixture: Groene Ster vs ASWH
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Groene Ster 1.45 — ASWH 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 33.0% · Over 2.5 67.0%); BTTS No (Yes 50.5% · No 49.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 50.5% · No 49.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Derde Divisie - Sunday Derde Divisie - Sunday — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kloetinge 33 21 7 5 70
2 FC Lisse 33 19 8 6 65
3 Vvsb 33 20 5 8 65
4 Rijnvogels 33 19 7 7 64
5 Gemert 33 17 9 7 60
6 Roosendaal 33 14 9 10 51
7 TOGB 33 14 8 11 50
8 Zwaluwen 33 14 6 13 48
9 Blauw Geel 33 14 6 13 48
10 Noordwijk 33 12 8 13 44
11 UDI '19 33 11 6 16 39
12 UNA 33 10 8 15 38
13 GOES 33 10 6 17 36
14 SteDoCo 33 10 4 19 34
15 Groene Ster 33 9 6 18 33
16 SVV Scheveningen 33 9 5 19 32
17 Meerssen 33 7 7 19 28
18 ASWH 33 6 7 20 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Gemert 33 68 43 +25 60
2 Vvsb 33 67 37 +30 65
3 Roosendaal 33 67 55 +12 51
4 FC Lisse 33 64 32 +32 65
5 Rijnvogels 33 63 36 +27 64
6 Kloetinge 33 63 42 +21 70
7 TOGB 33 62 60 +2 50
8 Zwaluwen 33 58 48 +10 48
9 Noordwijk 33 55 49 +6 44
10 UDI '19 33 54 70 -16 39
11 Blauw Geel 33 53 48 +5 48
12 UNA 33 50 57 -7 38
13 SVV Scheveningen 33 48 62 -14 32
14 Meerssen 33 45 69 -24 28
15 ASWH 33 44 84 -40 25
16 Groene Ster 33 42 63 -21 33
17 GOES 33 40 58 -18 36
18 SteDoCo 33 34 64 -30 34