Predictions / Football / Netherlands. Derde Divisie - Sunday / TOGB vs Groene Ster

Prediction Audit: TOGB vs Groene Ster Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

TOGB TOGB
May 16, 2026 - 13:30
5 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 35%
Groene Ster Groene Ster

AI correctly predicted the TOGB win.

The match finished 5–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 TOGB TOGB ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: TOGB -2.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
TOGB 41.8% 43.9% -2.1 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 24.6% +1.0 pp Aligned
Groene Ster 32.6% 31.5% +1.1 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (TOGB win 5–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 6 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (TOGB win 5–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · TOGB 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Groene Ster 32.6%
    • xG · TOGB 1.45 — Groene Ster 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · TOGB 2.05 · Draw 3.65 · Groene Ster 2.86
    • Implied 1X2 · TOGB 43.9% · Draw 24.6% · Groene Ster 31.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 16, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · TOGB 2.05 · Draw 3.65 · Groene Ster 2.86
    • Implied 1X2 · TOGB 43.9% · Draw 24.6% · Groene Ster 31.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 16, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result TOGB win · 5–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 89/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 17:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1905378

Closing Odds 2.05
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result TOGB win · TOGB 5–1 Groene Ster
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Derde Divisie - Sunday
  • Fixture: TOGB vs Groene Ster
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): TOGB 1.45 — Groene Ster 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 44.6% · Implied: 32.6% · Probability edge: +12.0 pts · Est. EV: +27.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 55.4% · No 44.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.0%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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See Upcoming Derde Divisie - Sunday Matches Track TOGB Next Match Prediction Track Groene Ster Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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Derde Divisie - Sunday Derde Divisie - Sunday — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kloetinge 33 21 7 5 70
2 FC Lisse 33 19 8 6 65
3 Vvsb 33 20 5 8 65
4 Rijnvogels 33 19 7 7 64
5 Gemert 33 17 9 7 60
6 Roosendaal 33 14 9 10 51
7 TOGB 33 14 8 11 50
8 Zwaluwen 33 14 6 13 48
9 Blauw Geel 33 14 6 13 48
10 Noordwijk 33 12 8 13 44
11 UDI '19 33 11 6 16 39
12 UNA 33 10 8 15 38
13 GOES 33 10 6 17 36
14 SteDoCo 33 10 4 19 34
15 Groene Ster 33 9 6 18 33
16 SVV Scheveningen 33 9 5 19 32
17 Meerssen 33 7 7 19 28
18 ASWH 33 6 7 20 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Gemert 33 68 43 +25 60
2 Vvsb 33 67 37 +30 65
3 Roosendaal 33 67 55 +12 51
4 FC Lisse 33 64 32 +32 65
5 Rijnvogels 33 63 36 +27 64
6 Kloetinge 33 63 42 +21 70
7 TOGB 33 62 60 +2 50
8 Zwaluwen 33 58 48 +10 48
9 Noordwijk 33 55 49 +6 44
10 UDI '19 33 54 70 -16 39
11 Blauw Geel 33 53 48 +5 48
12 UNA 33 50 57 -7 38
13 SVV Scheveningen 33 48 62 -14 32
14 Meerssen 33 45 69 -24 28
15 ASWH 33 44 84 -40 25
16 Groene Ster 33 42 63 -21 33
17 GOES 33 40 58 -18 36
18 SteDoCo 33 34 64 -30 34