Predictions / Football / Netherlands. Derde Divisie - Sunday / Gemert vs SteDoCo

Prediction Audit: Gemert vs SteDoCo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gemert Gemert
May 16, 2026 - 13:30
6 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 27%
SteDoCo SteDoCo

AI correctly predicted the Gemert win.

The match finished 6–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Gemert Gemert ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 6-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Gemert higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Gemert -13.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Gemert 41.8% 54.9% -13.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 20.6% +5.1 pp Model Higher
SteDoCo 32.6% 24.5% +8.1 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Gemert's win probability at 54.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 13.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Gemert win 6–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Gemert than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 7 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Gemert higher (54.9% vs model 41.8%, 13.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Gemert win 6–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Gemert 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · SteDoCo 32.6%
    • xG · Gemert 1.45 — SteDoCo 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Gemert 1.64 · Draw 4.37 · SteDoCo 3.67
    • Implied 1X2 · Gemert 54.9% · Draw 20.6% · SteDoCo 24.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 16, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Gemert 1.64 · Draw 4.37 · SteDoCo 3.67
    • Implied 1X2 · Gemert 54.9% · Draw 20.6% · SteDoCo 24.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 16, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Gemert win · 6–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 34/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 05:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1822225

Closing Odds 1.64
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Gemert win · Gemert 6–1 SteDoCo
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Derde Divisie - Sunday
  • Fixture: Gemert vs SteDoCo
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Gemert 1.45 — SteDoCo 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 42.3% · Implied: 36.1% · Probability edge: +6.2 pts · Est. EV: +8.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 58.0% · No 42.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Derde Divisie - Sunday Derde Divisie - Sunday — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kloetinge 33 21 7 5 70
2 FC Lisse 33 19 8 6 65
3 Vvsb 33 20 5 8 65
4 Rijnvogels 33 19 7 7 64
5 Gemert 33 17 9 7 60
6 Roosendaal 33 14 9 10 51
7 TOGB 33 14 8 11 50
8 Zwaluwen 33 14 6 13 48
9 Blauw Geel 33 14 6 13 48
10 Noordwijk 33 12 8 13 44
11 UDI '19 33 11 6 16 39
12 UNA 33 10 8 15 38
13 GOES 33 10 6 17 36
14 SteDoCo 33 10 4 19 34
15 Groene Ster 33 9 6 18 33
16 SVV Scheveningen 33 9 5 19 32
17 Meerssen 33 7 7 19 28
18 ASWH 33 6 7 20 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Gemert 33 68 43 +25 60
2 Vvsb 33 67 37 +30 65
3 Roosendaal 33 67 55 +12 51
4 FC Lisse 33 64 32 +32 65
5 Rijnvogels 33 63 36 +27 64
6 Kloetinge 33 63 42 +21 70
7 TOGB 33 62 60 +2 50
8 Zwaluwen 33 58 48 +10 48
9 Noordwijk 33 55 49 +6 44
10 UDI '19 33 54 70 -16 39
11 Blauw Geel 33 53 48 +5 48
12 UNA 33 50 57 -7 38
13 SVV Scheveningen 33 48 62 -14 32
14 Meerssen 33 45 69 -24 28
15 ASWH 33 44 84 -40 25
16 Groene Ster 33 42 63 -21 33
17 GOES 33 40 58 -18 36
18 SteDoCo 33 34 64 -30 34