Predictions / Football / Netherlands. Derde Divisie - Sunday / UNA vs FC Lisse

Prediction Audit: UNA vs FC Lisse Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

UNA UNA
May 10, 2026 - 12:30
0 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 55%
FC Lisse FC Lisse

The model missed the final outcome (FC Lisse win 0–2).

The model had projected UNA at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 UNA FC Lisse ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 2-1 0-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices FC Lisse higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: FC Lisse -15.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
UNA 41.8% 26.7% +15.1 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 25.3% +0.3 pp Aligned
FC Lisse 32.6% 47.9% -15.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates FC Lisse's win probability at 47.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 15.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was FC Lisse win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about FC Lisse than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned UNA; match finished FC Lisse

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on UNA by 15.4 percentage points (57.2% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 10, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · UNA 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · FC Lisse 32.6%
    • xG · UNA 1.45 — FC Lisse 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · UNA 3.32 · Draw 3.50 · FC Lisse 1.85
    • Implied 1X2 · UNA 26.7% · Draw 25.3% · FC Lisse 47.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 10, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · UNA 3.32 · Draw 3.50 · FC Lisse 1.85
    • Implied 1X2 · UNA 26.7% · Draw 25.3% · FC Lisse 47.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 10, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result FC Lisse win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 8/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 00:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1776833

Closing Odds 1.85
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result FC Lisse win · UNA 0–2 FC Lisse
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Derde Divisie - Sunday
  • Fixture: UNA vs FC Lisse
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 12:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): UNA 1.45 — FC Lisse 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 78.7% · Implied: 62.0% · Probability edge: +16.7 pts · Est. EV: +16.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 78.7% · No 21.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.7%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Derde Divisie - Sunday Derde Divisie - Sunday — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kloetinge 33 21 7 5 70
2 FC Lisse 33 19 8 6 65
3 Vvsb 33 20 5 8 65
4 Rijnvogels 33 19 7 7 64
5 Gemert 33 17 9 7 60
6 Roosendaal 33 14 9 10 51
7 TOGB 33 14 8 11 50
8 Zwaluwen 33 14 6 13 48
9 Blauw Geel 33 14 6 13 48
10 Noordwijk 33 12 8 13 44
11 UDI '19 33 11 6 16 39
12 UNA 33 10 8 15 38
13 GOES 33 10 6 17 36
14 SteDoCo 33 10 4 19 34
15 Groene Ster 33 9 6 18 33
16 SVV Scheveningen 33 9 5 19 32
17 Meerssen 33 7 7 19 28
18 ASWH 33 6 7 20 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Gemert 33 68 43 +25 60
2 Vvsb 33 67 37 +30 65
3 Roosendaal 33 67 55 +12 51
4 FC Lisse 33 64 32 +32 65
5 Rijnvogels 33 63 36 +27 64
6 Kloetinge 33 63 42 +21 70
7 TOGB 33 62 60 +2 50
8 Zwaluwen 33 58 48 +10 48
9 Noordwijk 33 55 49 +6 44
10 UDI '19 33 54 70 -16 39
11 Blauw Geel 33 53 48 +5 48
12 UNA 33 50 57 -7 38
13 SVV Scheveningen 33 48 62 -14 32
14 Meerssen 33 45 69 -24 28
15 ASWH 33 44 84 -40 25
16 Groene Ster 33 42 63 -21 33
17 GOES 33 40 58 -18 36
18 SteDoCo 33 34 64 -30 34