Predictions / Football / Netherlands. Derde Divisie - Saturday / Harkemase Boys vs Sportlust '46

Prediction Audit: Harkemase Boys vs Sportlust '46 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Harkemase Boys Harkemase Boys
May 23, 2026 - 13:30
4 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 46%
Sportlust '46 Sportlust '46

AI correctly predicted the Harkemase Boys win.

The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Harkemase Boys Harkemase Boys ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw -0.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Harkemase Boys 41.8% 41.2% +0.5 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 26.5% -0.8 pp Aligned
Sportlust '46 32.6% 32.2% +0.3 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Harkemase Boys win 4–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Harkemase Boys win 4–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 19:21 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Harkemase Boys 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Sportlust '46 32.6%
    • xG · Harkemase Boys 1.45 — Sportlust '46 1.25
  2. May 23, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Harkemase Boys 2.18 · Draw 3.39 · Sportlust '46 2.79
    • Implied 1X2 · Harkemase Boys 41.2% · Draw 26.5% · Sportlust '46 32.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 23, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Harkemase Boys 2.18 · Draw 3.39 · Sportlust '46 2.79
    • Implied 1X2 · Harkemase Boys 41.2% · Draw 26.5% · Sportlust '46 32.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 23, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Harkemase Boys win · 4–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 79/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 95/100
Betting Confidence 82/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1623096

Closing Odds 3.39
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Harkemase Boys win · Harkemase Boys 4–1 Sportlust '46
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Derde Divisie - Saturday
  • Fixture: Harkemase Boys vs Sportlust '46
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Harkemase Boys 1.45 — Sportlust '46 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 43.4% · Implied: 38.6% · Probability edge: +4.8 pts · Est. EV: +13.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 61.7% · No 38.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Derde Divisie - Saturday Derde Divisie - Saturday — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 ROHDA Raalte 33 20 7 6 67
2 ADO '20 33 17 9 7 60
3 DVS 33 Ermelo 33 16 11 6 59
4 Sparta Nijkerk 33 18 4 11 58
5 SC Genemuiden 33 17 5 11 56
6 Staphorst 33 16 3 14 51
7 Eemdijk 33 14 8 11 50
8 Dovo 33 14 7 12 49
9 Harkemase Boys 33 13 10 10 49
10 VV Scherpenzeel 33 14 6 13 48
11 Sportlust '46 33 14 5 14 47
12 Hoogeveen 33 13 6 14 45
13 Hercules 33 13 4 16 43
14 Huizen 33 11 7 15 40
15 TEC 33 12 3 18 39
16 Excelsior '31 33 11 4 18 37
17 URK 33 9 6 18 33
18 Hsc 21 33 1 3 29 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sparta Nijkerk 33 81 42 +39 58
2 Eemdijk 33 67 56 +11 50
3 ROHDA Raalte 33 62 34 +28 67
4 Staphorst 33 61 52 +9 51
5 SC Genemuiden 33 60 50 +10 56
6 URK 33 60 94 -34 33
7 DVS 33 Ermelo 33 58 39 +19 59
8 VV Scherpenzeel 33 55 45 +10 48
9 Sportlust '46 33 53 48 +5 47
10 Hercules 33 53 57 -4 43
11 Dovo 33 52 43 +9 49
12 Harkemase Boys 33 52 43 +9 49
13 Hoogeveen 33 52 63 -11 45
14 Huizen 33 51 62 -11 40
15 TEC 33 48 64 -16 39
16 Excelsior '31 33 47 56 -9 37
17 ADO '20 33 46 35 +11 60
18 Hsc 21 33 30 105 -75 6
Derde Divisie - Saturday Netherlands. Derde Divisie - Saturday Predictions