Predictions / Football / Saudi-Arabia. Pro League / Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC

Prediction Audit: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Al-Ittihad FC Al-Ittihad FC
May 21, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.47
5 2.18
xG Accuracy: 40%
Al-Qadisiyah FC Al-Qadisiyah FC

AI correctly predicted the Al-Qadisiyah FC win.

The match finished 1–5, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Al-Qadisiyah FC Al-Qadisiyah FC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 1-3, 0-2 1-5 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Al-Qadisiyah FC +12.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Al-Ittihad FC 24.6% 32.2% -7.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 22.7% 27.2% -4.5 pp Aligned
Al-Qadisiyah FC 52.7% 40.6% +12.1 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Al-Qadisiyah FC's win probability at 52.7%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 40.6%, a difference of 12.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Al-Qadisiyah FC win 1–5).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Al-Qadisiyah FC.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.65) — 6 goals materialised
  • Al-Qadisiyah FC attacking xG significantly stronger (2.18 vs 1.47)
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Al-Qadisiyah FC more conservatively (40.6% vs model 52.7%, 12.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Al-Qadisiyah FC win 1–5).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 21, 2026 · 18:17 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Al-Ittihad FC 24.6% · Draw 22.7% · Al-Qadisiyah FC 52.7%
    • xG · Al-Ittihad FC 1.47 — Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.18
  2. May 21, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Al-Ittihad FC 2.96 · Draw 3.50 · Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.35
    • Implied 1X2 · Al-Ittihad FC 32.2% · Draw 27.2% · Al-Qadisiyah FC 40.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 21, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Al-Ittihad FC 2.96 · Draw 3.50 · Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.35
    • Implied 1X2 · Al-Ittihad FC 32.2% · Draw 27.2% · Al-Qadisiyah FC 40.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 21, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Al-Qadisiyah FC win · 1–5
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (61%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 39/100
Betting Confidence 40/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 05:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2578271

Closing Odds 2.35
AI Fair Odds 1.9
CLV Pending
Final Result Al-Qadisiyah FC win · Al-Ittihad FC 1–5 Al-Qadisiyah FC
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 52.7%
  • Historical Bucket: 50–55% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Pro League
  • Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-21 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 24.6% · Draw 22.7% · Away 52.7%
  • xG (showing): Al-Ittihad FC 1.47 — Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.18 (total xG ≈ 3.65)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 70.6% · Implied: 63.6% · Probability edge: +7.0 pts · Est. EV: +5.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 69.4% · No 30.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (9.1%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Pro League Matches Track Al-Ittihad FC Next Match Prediction Track Al-Qadisiyah FC Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Al-Ittihad FC & Al-Qadisiyah FC!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Pro League Pro League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al-Nassr 34 28 2 4 86
2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34 25 9 0 84
3 Al-Ahli Jeddah 34 25 6 3 81
4 Al-Qadisiyah FC 34 23 8 3 77
5 Al-Ittihad FC 34 16 7 11 55
6 Al Taawon 34 15 8 11 53
7 Al-Ettifaq 34 14 8 12 50
8 NEOM 34 12 9 13 45
9 Al-Hazm 34 11 9 14 42
10 Al-Fayha 34 10 8 16 38
11 Al-Fateh 34 9 10 15 37
12 Al Khaleej Saihat 34 10 7 17 37
13 Al Shabab 34 8 11 15 35
14 Al Kholood 34 9 6 19 33
15 Al Riyadh 34 7 9 18 30
16 Damac 34 6 11 17 29
17 Al Akhdoud 34 5 5 24 20
18 Al Najma 34 3 7 24 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al-Nassr 34 91 28 +63 86
2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34 85 27 +58 84
3 Al-Qadisiyah FC 34 83 34 +49 77
4 Al-Ahli Jeddah 34 71 25 +46 81
5 Al Taawon 34 59 46 +13 53
6 Al-Ittihad FC 34 55 48 +7 55
7 Al Khaleej Saihat 34 54 62 -8 37
8 Al-Ettifaq 34 51 55 -4 50
9 Al Shabab 34 44 57 -13 35
10 NEOM 34 43 48 -5 45
11 Al-Fayha 34 41 54 -13 38
12 Al-Fateh 34 41 55 -14 37
13 Al Kholood 34 39 61 -22 33
14 Al-Hazm 34 38 57 -19 42
15 Al Riyadh 34 35 63 -28 30
16 Damac 34 32 55 -23 29
17 Al Najma 34 32 76 -44 16
18 Al Akhdoud 34 27 70 -43 20
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Al-Nassr 34 69.8 26.0 +43.8 86
2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34 68.9 25.9 +43.0 84
3 Al-Ahli Jeddah 34 62.4 26.7 +35.7 81
4 Al-Qadisiyah FC 34 62.9 35.2 +27.7 77
5 Al-Ittihad FC 34 49.5 41.2 +8.3 55
6 NEOM 34 45.8 39.4 +6.4 45
7 Al Shabab 34 44.1 44.7 -0.6 35
8 Al Taawon 34 42.0 44.7 -2.7 53
9 Al Khaleej Saihat 34 42.6 46.3 -3.7 37
10 Al-Fateh 34 42.5 49.6 -7.1 37
11 Al Riyadh 34 41.4 50.5 -9.1 30
12 Al-Fayha 34 33.3 43.4 -10.1 38
13 Al-Hazm 34 34.1 47.4 -13.3 42
14 Damac 34 25.1 38.5 -13.4 29
15 Al-Ettifaq 34 39.0 56.5 -17.5 50
16 Al Kholood 34 33.2 51.5 -18.3 33
17 Al Najma 34 28.1 61.0 -32.9 16
18 Al Akhdoud 34 26.8 62.8 -36.0 20