Predictions / Football / Saudi-Arabia. Pro League / Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm

Prediction Audit: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Al-Qadisiyah FC Al-Qadisiyah FC
May 14, 2026 - 18:00
2 3.24
0 1.11
xG Accuracy: 52%
Al-Hazm Al-Hazm

AI correctly predicted the Al-Qadisiyah FC win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Al-Qadisiyah FC Al-Qadisiyah FC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 3-1, 2-1, 3-0, 2-0, 4-1 2-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Al-Qadisiyah FC +2.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Al-Qadisiyah FC 77.9% 75.4% +2.5 pp Aligned
Draw 13.4% 13.5% -0.1 pp Aligned
Al-Hazm 8.7% 11.1% -2.4 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Al-Qadisiyah FC win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Al-Qadisiyah FC attacking xG significantly stronger (3.24 vs 1.11)
  • Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Al-Qadisiyah FC win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 13, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Al-Qadisiyah FC 78.0% · Draw 13.4% · Al-Hazm 8.7%
    • xG · Al-Qadisiyah FC 3.24 — Al-Hazm 1.11
  2. May 13, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.23 · Draw 6.85 · Al-Hazm 8.34
    • Implied 1X2 · Al-Qadisiyah FC 75.4% · Draw 13.5% · Al-Hazm 11.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 13, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.23 · Draw 6.85 · Al-Hazm 8.34
    • Implied 1X2 · Al-Qadisiyah FC 75.4% · Draw 13.5% · Al-Hazm 11.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 14, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Al-Qadisiyah FC win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 66/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pass
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (140%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 87/100
Betting Confidence 69/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 21:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2092452

Closing Odds 1.23
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Al-Qadisiyah FC win · Al-Qadisiyah FC 2–0 Al-Hazm
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Pro League
  • Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-13 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 78.0% · Draw 13.4% · Away 8.7%
  • xG (showing): Al-Qadisiyah FC 3.24 — Al-Hazm 1.11 (total xG ≈ 4.35)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 80.9% · Implied: 70.8% · Probability edge: +10.1 pts · Est. EV: +10.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 65.0% · No 35.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 3-1 (8.1%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Pro League Pro League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al-Nassr 34 28 2 4 86
2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34 25 9 0 84
3 Al-Ahli Jeddah 34 25 6 3 81
4 Al-Qadisiyah FC 34 23 8 3 77
5 Al-Ittihad FC 34 16 7 11 55
6 Al Taawon 34 15 8 11 53
7 Al-Ettifaq 34 14 8 12 50
8 NEOM 34 12 9 13 45
9 Al-Hazm 34 11 9 14 42
10 Al-Fayha 34 10 8 16 38
11 Al-Fateh 34 9 10 15 37
12 Al Khaleej Saihat 34 10 7 17 37
13 Al Shabab 34 8 11 15 35
14 Al Kholood 34 9 6 19 33
15 Al Riyadh 34 7 9 18 30
16 Damac 34 6 11 17 29
17 Al Akhdoud 34 5 5 24 20
18 Al Najma 34 3 7 24 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al-Nassr 34 91 28 +63 86
2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34 85 27 +58 84
3 Al-Qadisiyah FC 34 83 34 +49 77
4 Al-Ahli Jeddah 34 71 25 +46 81
5 Al Taawon 34 59 46 +13 53
6 Al-Ittihad FC 34 55 48 +7 55
7 Al Khaleej Saihat 34 54 62 -8 37
8 Al-Ettifaq 34 51 55 -4 50
9 Al Shabab 34 44 57 -13 35
10 NEOM 34 43 48 -5 45
11 Al-Fayha 34 41 54 -13 38
12 Al-Fateh 34 41 55 -14 37
13 Al Kholood 34 39 61 -22 33
14 Al-Hazm 34 38 57 -19 42
15 Al Riyadh 34 35 63 -28 30
16 Damac 34 32 55 -23 29
17 Al Najma 34 32 76 -44 16
18 Al Akhdoud 34 27 70 -43 20
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Al-Nassr 34 69.8 26.0 +43.8 86
2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34 68.9 25.9 +43.0 84
3 Al-Ahli Jeddah 34 62.4 26.7 +35.7 81
4 Al-Qadisiyah FC 34 62.9 35.2 +27.7 77
5 Al-Ittihad FC 34 49.5 41.2 +8.3 55
6 NEOM 34 45.8 39.4 +6.4 45
7 Al Shabab 34 44.1 44.7 -0.6 35
8 Al Taawon 34 42.0 44.7 -2.7 53
9 Al Khaleej Saihat 34 42.6 46.3 -3.7 37
10 Al-Fateh 34 42.5 49.6 -7.1 37
11 Al Riyadh 34 41.4 50.5 -9.1 30
12 Al-Fayha 34 33.3 43.4 -10.1 38
13 Al-Hazm 34 34.1 47.4 -13.3 42
14 Damac 34 25.1 38.5 -13.4 29
15 Al-Ettifaq 34 39.0 56.5 -17.5 50
16 Al Kholood 34 33.2 51.5 -18.3 33
17 Al Najma 34 28.1 61.0 -32.9 16
18 Al Akhdoud 34 26.8 62.8 -36.0 20