Predictions / Football / Saudi-Arabia. Pro League / Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood

Prediction Audit: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Al-Ittihad FC Al-Ittihad FC
May 04, 2026 - 18:00
0 2.01
0 1.29
xG Accuracy: 40%
Al Kholood Al Kholood

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Al-Ittihad FC at 52.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Al-Ittihad FC Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Al-Ittihad FC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Al-Ittihad FC -10.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Al-Ittihad FC 52.9% 62.9% -10.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 24.1% 20.1% +3.9 pp Aligned
Al Kholood 23.1% 17.0% +6.1 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Al-Ittihad FC's win probability at 62.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 52.9%, a difference of 10.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Al-Ittihad FC. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Al-Ittihad FC by 10.0 percentage points (62.9% vs model 52.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 04, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Al-Ittihad FC 52.9% · Draw 24.0% · Al Kholood 23.1%
    • xG · Al-Ittihad FC 2.01 — Al Kholood 1.29
  2. May 04, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Al-Ittihad FC 1.51 · Draw 4.71 · Al Kholood 5.58
    • Implied 1X2 · Al-Ittihad FC 62.9% · Draw 20.1% · Al Kholood 17.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 04, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Al-Ittihad FC 1.51 · Draw 4.71 · Al Kholood 5.58
    • Implied 1X2 · Al-Ittihad FC 62.9% · Draw 20.1% · Al Kholood 17.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 04, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 50/100
Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 16:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1474324

Closing Odds 1.51
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Al-Ittihad FC 0–0 Al Kholood
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Pro League
  • Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-04 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 52.9% · Draw 24.0% · Away 23.1%
  • xG (showing): Al-Ittihad FC 2.01 — Al Kholood 1.29 (total xG ≈ 3.3)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 64.0% · Implied: 56.9% · Probability edge: +7.1 pts · Est. EV: +6.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 64.0% · No 36.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Pro League Pro League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al-Nassr 34 28 2 4 86
2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34 25 9 0 84
3 Al-Ahli Jeddah 34 25 6 3 81
4 Al-Qadisiyah FC 34 23 8 3 77
5 Al-Ittihad FC 34 16 7 11 55
6 Al Taawon 34 15 8 11 53
7 Al-Ettifaq 34 14 8 12 50
8 NEOM 34 12 9 13 45
9 Al-Hazm 34 11 9 14 42
10 Al-Fayha 34 10 8 16 38
11 Al-Fateh 34 9 10 15 37
12 Al Khaleej Saihat 34 10 7 17 37
13 Al Shabab 34 8 11 15 35
14 Al Kholood 34 9 6 19 33
15 Al Riyadh 34 7 9 18 30
16 Damac 34 6 11 17 29
17 Al Akhdoud 34 5 5 24 20
18 Al Najma 34 3 7 24 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al-Nassr 34 91 28 +63 86
2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34 85 27 +58 84
3 Al-Qadisiyah FC 34 83 34 +49 77
4 Al-Ahli Jeddah 34 71 25 +46 81
5 Al Taawon 34 59 46 +13 53
6 Al-Ittihad FC 34 55 48 +7 55
7 Al Khaleej Saihat 34 54 62 -8 37
8 Al-Ettifaq 34 51 55 -4 50
9 Al Shabab 34 44 57 -13 35
10 NEOM 34 43 48 -5 45
11 Al-Fayha 34 41 54 -13 38
12 Al-Fateh 34 41 55 -14 37
13 Al Kholood 34 39 61 -22 33
14 Al-Hazm 34 38 57 -19 42
15 Al Riyadh 34 35 63 -28 30
16 Damac 34 32 55 -23 29
17 Al Najma 34 32 76 -44 16
18 Al Akhdoud 34 27 70 -43 20
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Al-Nassr 34 69.8 26.0 +43.8 86
2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34 68.9 25.9 +43.0 84
3 Al-Ahli Jeddah 34 62.4 26.7 +35.7 81
4 Al-Qadisiyah FC 34 62.9 35.2 +27.7 77
5 Al-Ittihad FC 34 49.5 41.2 +8.3 55
6 NEOM 34 45.8 39.4 +6.4 45
7 Al Shabab 34 44.1 44.7 -0.6 35
8 Al Taawon 34 42.0 44.7 -2.7 53
9 Al Khaleej Saihat 34 42.6 46.3 -3.7 37
10 Al-Fateh 34 42.5 49.6 -7.1 37
11 Al Riyadh 34 41.4 50.5 -9.1 30
12 Al-Fayha 34 33.3 43.4 -10.1 38
13 Al-Hazm 34 34.1 47.4 -13.3 42
14 Damac 34 25.1 38.5 -13.4 29
15 Al-Ettifaq 34 39.0 56.5 -17.5 50
16 Al Kholood 34 33.2 51.5 -18.3 33
17 Al Najma 34 28.1 61.0 -32.9 16
18 Al Akhdoud 34 26.8 62.8 -36.0 20