The model missed the final outcome (Taichung Futuro win 1–2).
The model had projected Taipower at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Taipower Taichung Futuro ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taipower | 41.8% | 20.2% | +21.6 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 25.7% | 25.1% | +0.5 pp | Aligned |
| Taichung Futuro | 32.6% | 54.6% | -22.1 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Taichung Futuro's win probability at 54.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 22.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Taichung Futuro win 1–2.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Taipower; match finished Taichung Futuro
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Taipower by 22.1 percentage points (63.9% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
May 10, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Taipower 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Taichung Futuro 32.6%
- xG · Taipower 1.45 — Taichung Futuro 1.25
-
May 10, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Taipower 4.54 · Draw 3.65 · Taichung Futuro 1.68
- Implied 1X2 · Taipower 20.2% · Draw 25.1% · Taichung Futuro 54.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 10, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Taipower 4.54 · Draw 3.65 · Taichung Futuro 1.68
- Implied 1X2 · Taipower 20.2% · Draw 25.1% · Taichung Futuro 54.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 10, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Taichung Futuro win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (22 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotProbability Calibration
- Expected: 41.8%
- Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Taiwan Football Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tainan City | 21 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 41 |
| 2 | Hang Yuen | 21 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 41 |
| 3 | AC Taipei | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 39 |
| 4 | Taichung Futuro | 21 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 37 |
| 5 | Taichung Rock FC | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 30 |
| 6 | Tatung | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 24 |
| 7 | Taipower | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 20 |
| 8 | Ming Chuan University | 21 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tainan City | 21 | 44 | 21 | +23 | 41 |
| 2 | Taichung Futuro | 21 | 36 | 22 | +14 | 37 |
| 3 | Hang Yuen | 21 | 35 | 15 | +20 | 41 |
| 4 | AC Taipei | 21 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 39 |
| 5 | Taichung Rock FC | 21 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 30 |
| 6 | Tatung | 21 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 24 |
| 7 | Taipower | 21 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 20 |
| 8 | Ming Chuan University | 21 | 14 | 69 | -55 | 4 |
