AI Decision
Model–Market Alignment: Neutral
- Direction: Neutral
- Probability pricing: Tight · 0.0 pp
- Validation: Pending
Home xG 1.49 · Away xG 1.23 · League avg 1.35 · Peak deviation +10%
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
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Swindon Supermarine — prediction review
Moderate scoring expected (ΣxG 2.72). Before kickoff, the model leaned Swindon Supermarine (43.2%) in a relatively balanced match. Model and market both lean Swindon Supermarine with no major conflict. Pre-match verdict at the time: Observe.
Prediction Assessment
Balanced match · Swindon Supermarine 43.2%
- Market Direction
- No clear directional signal
- Prediction Reliability
- Limited reliability
The model and market both lean Swindon Supermarine, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Falmouth Town remain plausible — this is a relatively open match.
Why?
Model and market both lean Swindon Supermarine with no major conflict.
- Model: Swindon Supermarine 1.49 xG vs Falmouth Town 1.23 → Swindon Supermarine 43.2%
Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.
Betting Recommendation
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Match Phase: Finished
Decision Lifecycle
Current stage: Closing unavailable
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Prediction Generated
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Market ComparedEntry Pending
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Validation Passed
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Closing RecordedClosing Unavailable No complete pre-match closing snapshot
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CLV EvaluatedCLV Pending Requires closing line after full time
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Non League Div One - Southern South — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Frome Town | 42 | 32 | 6 | 4 | 102 |
| 2 | Portishead Town | 42 | 30 | 5 | 7 | 95 |
| 3 | Malvern Town | 42 | 30 | 5 | 7 | 95 |
| 4 | Winchester City | 42 | 24 | 10 | 8 | 82 |
| 5 | Shaftesbury Town | 42 | 25 | 4 | 13 | 79 |
| 6 | Bishop's Cleeve | 42 | 23 | 9 | 10 | 78 |
| 7 | Hartpury University | 42 | 20 | 7 | 15 | 67 |
| 8 | Exmouth | 42 | 18 | 7 | 17 | 61 |
| 9 | Larkhall Athletic | 42 | 18 | 7 | 17 | 61 |
| 10 | Westbury United | 42 | 17 | 7 | 18 | 58 |
| 11 | Sporting Club Inkberrow | 42 | 16 | 7 | 19 | 54 |
| 12 | Didcot Town | 42 | 14 | 8 | 20 | 50 |
| 13 | Swindon Supermarine | 42 | 13 | 11 | 18 | 50 |
| 14 | Falmouth Town | 42 | 13 | 10 | 19 | 49 |
| 15 | Bristol Manor Farm | 42 | 12 | 12 | 18 | 48 |
| 16 | Bideford | 42 | 13 | 9 | 20 | 48 |
| 17 | Melksham Town | 42 | 11 | 12 | 19 | 45 |
| 18 | Mousehole | 42 | 11 | 13 | 18 | 45 |
| 19 | Willand Rovers | 42 | 11 | 10 | 21 | 43 |
| 20 | Bashley | 42 | 10 | 7 | 25 | 37 |
| 21 | Brixham | 42 | 10 | 6 | 26 | 36 |
| 22 | Tavistock | 42 | 3 | 4 | 35 | 12 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portishead Town | 42 | 110 | 37 | +73 | 95 |
| 2 | Malvern Town | 42 | 103 | 61 | +42 | 95 |
| 3 | Frome Town | 42 | 97 | 32 | +65 | 102 |
| 4 | Shaftesbury Town | 42 | 96 | 69 | +27 | 79 |
| 5 | Winchester City | 42 | 92 | 52 | +40 | 82 |
| 6 | Hartpury University | 42 | 83 | 55 | +28 | 67 |
| 7 | Bishop's Cleeve | 42 | 77 | 59 | +18 | 78 |
| 8 | Larkhall Athletic | 42 | 74 | 74 | 0 | 61 |
| 9 | Exmouth | 42 | 68 | 66 | +2 | 61 |
| 10 | Falmouth Town | 42 | 66 | 82 | -16 | 49 |
| 11 | Sporting Club Inkberrow | 42 | 62 | 76 | -14 | 54 |
| 12 | Swindon Supermarine | 42 | 61 | 59 | +2 | 50 |
| 13 | Bristol Manor Farm | 42 | 57 | 77 | -20 | 48 |
| 14 | Bideford | 42 | 55 | 83 | -28 | 48 |
| 15 | Mousehole | 42 | 54 | 64 | -10 | 45 |
| 16 | Willand Rovers | 42 | 54 | 74 | -20 | 43 |
| 17 | Didcot Town | 42 | 53 | 70 | -17 | 50 |
| 18 | Bashley | 42 | 49 | 71 | -22 | 37 |
| 19 | Brixham | 42 | 47 | 92 | -45 | 36 |
| 20 | Westbury United | 42 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 58 |
| 21 | Melksham Town | 42 | 45 | 63 | -18 | 45 |
| 22 | Tavistock | 42 | 29 | 113 | -84 | 12 |