The model missed the final outcome (Magpies win 0–3).
The model had projected Draw at 42.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Draw Magpies ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 0-3 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Draw; match finished Magpies
Market lesson
The full-time result was Magpies win 0–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Hound Dogs 0.74 — Magpies 0.61
-
Jan 17, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Magpies win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Magpies win · Hound Dogs 0–3 Magpies
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier Division — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Joseph S Fc | 22 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 58 |
| 2 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 21 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 56 |
| 3 | Mons Calpe | 21 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 46 |
| 4 | Europa | 22 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 46 |
| 5 | Lions Gibraltar | 21 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 38 |
| 6 | Lynx | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 34 |
| 7 | Magpies | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 26 |
| 8 | Europa Point | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 22 |
| 9 | Manchester 62 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 15 | 19 |
| 10 | College 1975 | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 14 |
| 11 | Glacis United | 22 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 12 |
| 12 | Hound Dogs | 22 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 8 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Joseph S Fc | 22 | 90 | 10 | +80 | 58 |
| 2 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 21 | 77 | 13 | +64 | 56 |
| 3 | Mons Calpe | 21 | 55 | 21 | +34 | 46 |
| 4 | Lions Gibraltar | 21 | 46 | 32 | +14 | 38 |
| 5 | Europa | 22 | 44 | 16 | +28 | 46 |
| 6 | Lynx | 22 | 34 | 33 | +1 | 34 |
| 7 | Europa Point | 22 | 31 | 61 | -30 | 22 |
| 8 | Manchester 62 | 22 | 29 | 77 | -48 | 19 |
| 9 | Magpies | 22 | 22 | 37 | -15 | 26 |
| 10 | Glacis United | 22 | 18 | 57 | -39 | 12 |
| 11 | College 1975 | 22 | 15 | 45 | -30 | 14 |
| 12 | Hound Dogs | 22 | 10 | 66 | -56 | 8 |
