The model missed the final outcome (Sheffield United U21 win 0–2).
The model had projected Queens Park Rangers U21 at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Queens Park Rangers U21 Sheffield United U21 ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Sheffield United U21 win 0–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Queens Park Rangers U21 1.45 — Sheffield United U21 1.25
-
Mar 17, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sheffield United U21 win · 0–2
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FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Sheffield United U21 win · Queens Park Rangers U21 0–2 Sheffield United U21
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Professional Development League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sheffield United U21 | 28 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 52 |
| 1 | Brentford U21 | 28 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 58 |
| 2 | Peterborough United U21 | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 48 |
| 3 | Huddersfield Town U21 | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 48 |
| 3 | AFC Bournemouth U21 | 28 | 16 | 2 | 10 | 50 |
| 4 | Wigan Athletic U21 | 28 | 11 | 5 | 12 | 38 |
| 5 | Hull City U21 | 28 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 37 |
| 5 | Swansea City U21 | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 47 |
| 6 | Barnsley U21 | 28 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 37 |
| 6 | Watford U21 | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 45 |
| 7 | Coventry City U21 | 28 | 11 | 2 | 15 | 35 |
| 8 | Sheffield Wednesday U21 | 28 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 30 |
| 8 | Charlton Athletic U21 | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 40 |
| 9 | Fleetwood Town U21 | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 23 |
| 9 | Cardiff City U21 | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 40 |
| 10 | Crewe Alexandra U21 | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 23 |
| 13 | Millwall U21 | 28 | 11 | 3 | 14 | 36 |
| 14 | Bristol City U21 | 28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | 35 |
| 16 | Queens Park Rangers U21 | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 33 |
| 18 | Colchester United U21 | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 24 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Watford U21 | 28 | 69 | 53 | +16 | 45 |
| 2 | Brentford U21 | 28 | 67 | 34 | +33 | 58 |
| 3 | AFC Bournemouth U21 | 28 | 67 | 47 | +20 | 50 |
| 4 | Swansea City U21 | 27 | 67 | 48 | +19 | 47 |
| 5 | Wigan Athletic U21 | 28 | 67 | 58 | +9 | 38 |
| 6 | Peterborough United U21 | 28 | 66 | 52 | +14 | 48 |
| 7 | Huddersfield Town U21 | 28 | 59 | 50 | +9 | 48 |
| 8 | Sheffield United U21 | 28 | 58 | 39 | +19 | 52 |
| 9 | Charlton Athletic U21 | 28 | 58 | 49 | +9 | 40 |
| 10 | Barnsley U21 | 28 | 51 | 58 | -7 | 37 |
| 11 | Queens Park Rangers U21 | 28 | 51 | 61 | -10 | 33 |
| 12 | Hull City U21 | 28 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 37 |
| 13 | Sheffield Wednesday U21 | 28 | 49 | 63 | -14 | 30 |
| 14 | Cardiff City U21 | 28 | 48 | 39 | +9 | 40 |
| 15 | Millwall U21 | 28 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 36 |
| 16 | Coventry City U21 | 28 | 46 | 63 | -17 | 35 |
| 17 | Bristol City U21 | 28 | 45 | 54 | -9 | 35 |
| 18 | Crewe Alexandra U21 | 28 | 41 | 69 | -28 | 23 |
| 19 | Colchester United U21 | 28 | 40 | 77 | -37 | 24 |
| 20 | Fleetwood Town U21 | 28 | 36 | 63 | -27 | 23 |
