The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Ringkøbing at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
C
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Ringkøbing Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Ringkøbing; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Ringkøbing 1.45 — ØB 1.25
-
Mar 22, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Ringkøbing 2–2 ØB
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Denmark Series - Group 3 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marienlyst | 19 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 50 |
| 2 | Esbjerg II | 18 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 40 |
| 3 | SfB-Oure | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 36 |
| 4 | OKS | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 29 |
| 5 | Tarup-Paarup | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 21 |
| 6 | Horsens II | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 17 |
| 7 | Ringkøbing | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 16 |
| 8 | Hedensted | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 15 |
| 9 | Silkeborg KFUM | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 15 |
| 10 | ØB | 19 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 12 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esbjerg II | 18 | 61 | 26 | +35 | 40 |
| 2 | Marienlyst | 19 | 47 | 16 | +31 | 50 |
| 3 | OKS | 18 | 42 | 40 | +2 | 29 |
| 4 | Horsens II | 18 | 38 | 59 | -21 | 17 |
| 5 | SfB-Oure | 17 | 35 | 18 | +17 | 36 |
| 6 | Tarup-Paarup | 17 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 21 |
| 7 | ØB | 19 | 28 | 53 | -25 | 12 |
| 8 | Hedensted | 17 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 15 |
| 9 | Silkeborg KFUM | 18 | 26 | 33 | -7 | 15 |
| 10 | Ringkøbing | 17 | 21 | 44 | -23 | 16 |
