Predictions / Football / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 / Águilas vs Deportiva Minera

Prediction Audit: Águilas vs Deportiva Minera Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Águilas Águilas
Jan 25, 2026 - 16:30
0 1.49
1 1.23
xG Accuracy: 62%
Deportiva Minera Deportiva Minera

The model missed the final outcome (Deportiva Minera win 0–1).

The model had projected Águilas at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Águilas Deportiva Minera ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Deportiva Minera win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · Águilas 1.49 — Deportiva Minera 1.23
  2. Jan 25, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Deportiva Minera win · 0–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 03:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1962211

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Deportiva Minera win · Águilas 0–1 Deportiva Minera
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Extremadura 1924 34 17 12 5 63
2 Deportiva Minera 34 19 6 9 63
3 Águilas 34 18 7 9 61
4 Xerez 34 17 8 9 59
5 Real Jaén 34 16 10 8 58
6 Recreativo Huelva 34 16 9 9 57
7 Ucam Murcia 34 16 7 11 55
8 Linares Deportivo 34 11 14 9 47
9 La Unión Atlético 34 13 6 15 45
10 Lorca Deportiva 34 12 9 13 45
11 Yeclano 34 12 8 14 44
12 Antoniano 34 12 8 14 44
13 Estepona 34 12 8 14 44
14 Puente Genil 34 10 10 14 40
15 Xerez Deportivo 34 8 12 14 36
16 Melilla 34 7 13 14 34
17 Almería II 34 4 9 21 21
18 Málaga II 34 5 6 23 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Extremadura 1924 34 54 38 +16 63
2 Deportiva Minera 34 50 33 +17 63
3 Ucam Murcia 34 49 41 +8 55
4 Águilas 34 45 25 +20 61
5 La Unión Atlético 34 44 43 +1 45
6 Real Jaén 34 43 33 +10 58
7 Linares Deportivo 34 42 45 -3 47
8 Recreativo Huelva 34 41 25 +16 57
9 Estepona 34 40 44 -4 44
10 Antoniano 34 38 40 -2 44
11 Melilla 34 36 40 -4 34
12 Xerez Deportivo 34 34 43 -9 36
13 Yeclano 34 33 33 0 44
14 Xerez 34 32 24 +8 59
15 Lorca Deportiva 34 32 36 -4 45
16 Málaga II 34 32 66 -34 21
17 Puente Genil 34 28 37 -9 40
18 Almería II 34 26 53 -27 21
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Predictions