Predictions / Football / Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 1 / Osasuna II vs Mérida AD

Prediction Audit: Osasuna II vs Mérida AD Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Osasuna II Osasuna II
May 23, 2026 - 16:30
1 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 72%
Mérida AD Mérida AD

The model missed the final outcome (Mérida AD win 1–2).

The model had projected Osasuna II at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Osasuna II Mérida AD ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Mérida AD considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Mérida AD +10.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Osasuna II 41.8% 51.3% -9.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 26.2% -0.5 pp Aligned
Mérida AD 32.6% 22.6% +10.0 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Mérida AD's win probability at 32.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.6%, a difference of 10.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Mérida AD win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Mérida AD.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Osasuna II by 10.0 percentage points (31.8% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 24, 2026 · 19:07 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Osasuna II 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Mérida AD 32.6%
    • xG · Osasuna II 1.45 — Mérida AD 1.25
  2. May 24, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Osasuna II 1.69 · Draw 3.31 · Mérida AD 3.84
    • Implied 1X2 · Osasuna II 51.3% · Draw 26.2% · Mérida AD 22.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 24, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Osasuna II 1.69 · Draw 3.31 · Mérida AD 3.84
    • Implied 1X2 · Osasuna II 51.3% · Draw 26.2% · Mérida AD 22.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 23, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Mérida AD win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 49/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 16:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3059367

Closing Odds 3.84
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Mérida AD win · Osasuna II 1–2 Mérida AD
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera División RFEF - Group 1
  • Fixture: Osasuna II vs Mérida AD
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-24 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Osasuna II 1.45 — Mérida AD 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 63.2% · Implied: 46.8% · Probability edge: +16.4 pts · Est. EV: +30.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 36.8% · No 63.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tenerife 38 22 10 6 76
2 Celta de Vigo II 38 18 11 9 65
3 Zamora 38 17 10 11 61
4 Ponferradina 38 17 9 12 60
5 Real Madrid U21 36 16 8 12 56
5 Real Madrid II 38 16 10 12 58
6 Pontevedra 38 14 16 8 58
7 Barakaldo 38 15 13 10 58
8 Unionistas de Salamanca 38 15 11 12 56
9 Lugo 38 13 14 11 53
10 Mérida AD 38 14 10 14 52
11 Arenas Getxo 38 15 7 16 52
12 Racing Ferrol 38 13 10 15 49
13 Athletic Club II 38 13 10 15 49
14 Real Avilés 38 11 11 16 44
15 Cacereño 38 10 14 14 44
16 CF Talavera 38 11 10 17 43
17 Ourense CF 38 10 13 15 43
18 Guadalajara 38 10 11 17 41
19 Osasuna II 38 10 10 18 40
20 Arenteiro 38 6 10 22 28
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tenerife 38 62 24 +38 76
2 Celta de Vigo II 38 61 48 +13 65
3 Real Madrid II 38 61 52 +9 58
4 Real Madrid U21 36 56 47 +9 56
5 Real Avilés 38 55 67 -12 44
6 Zamora 38 53 42 +11 61
7 Unionistas de Salamanca 38 53 49 +4 56
8 Barakaldo 38 51 38 +13 58
9 Pontevedra 38 49 31 +18 58
10 Mérida AD 38 47 53 -6 52
11 Arenas Getxo 38 46 55 -9 52
12 Ourense CF 38 44 47 -3 43
13 Guadalajara 38 44 58 -14 41
14 Ponferradina 38 43 33 +10 60
15 Cacereño 38 42 49 -7 44
16 Racing Ferrol 38 41 47 -6 49
17 Athletic Club II 38 38 46 -8 49
18 CF Talavera 38 38 47 -9 43
19 Lugo 38 36 40 -4 53
20 Arenteiro 38 29 53 -24 28
21 Osasuna II 38 28 42 -14 40
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions