Predictions / Football / Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 2 / Hércules vs Gimnastic

Prediction Audit: Hércules vs Gimnastic Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hércules Hércules
May 23, 2026 - 16:30
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Gimnastic Gimnastic

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Hércules at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Hércules Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Gimnastic higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Gimnastic -19.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Hércules 41.8% 24.3% +17.5 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 23.5% +2.1 pp Aligned
Gimnastic 32.6% 52.2% -19.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Gimnastic's win probability at 52.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 19.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Gimnastic than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned Hércules; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Hércules by 19.6 percentage points (61.4% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 24, 2026 · 19:08 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Hércules 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Gimnastic 32.6%
    • xG · Hércules 1.45 — Gimnastic 1.25
  2. May 24, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Hércules 3.65 · Draw 3.77 · Gimnastic 1.70
    • Implied 1X2 · Hércules 24.3% · Draw 23.5% · Gimnastic 52.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 24, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Hércules 3.65 · Draw 3.77 · Gimnastic 1.70
    • Implied 1X2 · Hércules 24.3% · Draw 23.5% · Gimnastic 52.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 23, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 18/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 29, 2026 · 06:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5965339

Closing Odds 1.7
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Hércules 1–1 Gimnastic
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera División RFEF - Group 2
  • Fixture: Hércules vs Gimnastic
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-24 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Hércules 1.45 — Gimnastic 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
  • Model: 58.2% · Implied: 53.1% · Probability edge: +5.1 pts · Est. EV: +3.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 41.8% · No 58.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.2%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Eldense 38 19 12 7 69
2 Sabadell 38 18 14 6 68
3 Atlético Madrid II 38 19 10 9 67
4 Villarreal II 38 16 15 7 63
5 Europa Fc 38 16 12 10 60
6 FC Cartagena 38 15 12 11 57
7 Antequera 38 16 8 14 56
8 Algeciras 38 15 10 13 55
9 Hércules 38 14 12 12 54
10 Real Murcia 38 14 10 14 52
11 Alcorcon 38 12 15 11 51
12 Ibiza 38 13 11 14 50
13 Teruel 38 12 13 13 49
14 Gimnastic 38 13 8 17 47
15 Juventud Torremolinos 38 11 13 14 46
16 Tarazona 38 11 12 15 45
17 Real Betis II 38 12 9 17 45
18 Marbella 38 9 7 22 34
19 Sanluqueño 38 7 10 21 31
20 Sevilla Atletico 38 5 13 20 28
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Atlético Madrid II 38 64 44 +20 67
2 Eldense 38 57 39 +18 69
3 Europa Fc 38 55 50 +5 60
4 Villarreal II 38 54 32 +22 63
5 Sabadell 38 53 27 +26 68
6 Real Betis II 38 48 59 -11 45
7 Antequera 38 47 44 +3 56
8 Juventud Torremolinos 38 45 51 -6 46
9 Alcorcon 38 44 38 +6 51
10 Ibiza 38 44 38 +6 50
11 Real Murcia 38 43 40 +3 52
12 Hércules 38 43 41 +2 54
13 Algeciras 38 40 41 -1 55
14 Gimnastic 38 40 49 -9 47
15 FC Cartagena 38 37 38 -1 57
16 Marbella 38 36 55 -19 34
17 Tarazona 38 31 40 -9 45
18 Teruel 38 27 33 -6 49
19 Sanluqueño 38 27 53 -26 31
20 Sevilla Atletico 38 21 44 -23 28
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Predictions