Predictions / Football / Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 2 / FC Cartagena vs Alcorcon

Prediction Audit: FC Cartagena vs Alcorcon Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FC Cartagena FC Cartagena
May 08, 2026 - 17:00
2 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 80%
Alcorcon Alcorcon

AI correctly predicted the FC Cartagena win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FC Cartagena FC Cartagena ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Draw higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Draw -7.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FC Cartagena 41.8% 38.0% +3.8 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 33.1% -7.4 pp Market Higher
Alcorcon 32.6% 28.9% +3.7 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Draw's win probability at 33.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 25.7%, a difference of 7.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (FC Cartagena win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced FC Cartagena higher (49.2% vs model 41.8%, 7.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (FC Cartagena win 2–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 10, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FC Cartagena 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Alcorcon 32.6%
    • xG · FC Cartagena 1.45 — Alcorcon 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FC Cartagena 2.44 · Draw 2.80 · Alcorcon 3.21
    • Implied 1X2 · FC Cartagena 38.0% · Draw 33.1% · Alcorcon 28.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 10, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FC Cartagena 2.44 · Draw 2.80 · Alcorcon 3.21
    • Implied 1X2 · FC Cartagena 38.0% · Draw 33.1% · Alcorcon 28.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 08, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result FC Cartagena win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 62/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 01:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1528744

Closing Odds 2.8
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result FC Cartagena win · FC Cartagena 2–1 Alcorcon
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera División RFEF - Group 2
  • Fixture: FC Cartagena vs Alcorcon
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): FC Cartagena 1.45 — Alcorcon 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 67.4% · Implied: 54.0% · Probability edge: +13.4 pts · Est. EV: +17.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 32.6% · No 67.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (15.7%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Matches Track FC Cartagena Next Match Prediction Track Alcorcon Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for FC Cartagena & Alcorcon!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Eldense 38 19 12 7 69
2 Sabadell 38 18 14 6 68
3 Atlético Madrid II 38 19 10 9 67
4 Villarreal II 38 16 15 7 63
5 Europa Fc 38 16 12 10 60
6 FC Cartagena 38 15 12 11 57
7 Antequera 38 16 8 14 56
8 Algeciras 38 15 10 13 55
9 Hércules 38 14 12 12 54
10 Real Murcia 38 14 10 14 52
11 Alcorcon 38 12 15 11 51
12 Ibiza 38 13 11 14 50
13 Teruel 38 12 13 13 49
14 Gimnastic 38 13 8 17 47
15 Juventud Torremolinos 38 11 13 14 46
16 Tarazona 38 11 12 15 45
17 Real Betis II 38 12 9 17 45
18 Marbella 38 9 7 22 34
19 Sanluqueño 38 7 10 21 31
20 Sevilla Atletico 38 5 13 20 28
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Atlético Madrid II 38 64 44 +20 67
2 Eldense 38 57 39 +18 69
3 Europa Fc 38 55 50 +5 60
4 Villarreal II 38 54 32 +22 63
5 Sabadell 38 53 27 +26 68
6 Real Betis II 38 48 59 -11 45
7 Antequera 38 47 44 +3 56
8 Juventud Torremolinos 38 45 51 -6 46
9 Alcorcon 38 44 38 +6 51
10 Ibiza 38 44 38 +6 50
11 Real Murcia 38 43 40 +3 52
12 Hércules 38 43 41 +2 54
13 Algeciras 38 40 41 -1 55
14 Gimnastic 38 40 49 -9 47
15 FC Cartagena 38 37 38 -1 57
16 Marbella 38 36 55 -19 34
17 Tarazona 38 31 40 -9 45
18 Teruel 38 27 33 -6 49
19 Sanluqueño 38 27 53 -26 31
20 Sevilla Atletico 38 21 44 -23 28
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Predictions