Predictions / Football / Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 2 / Ibiza vs Sanluqueño

Prediction Audit: Ibiza vs Sanluqueño Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ibiza Ibiza
May 03, 2026 - 15:45
4 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 35%
Sanluqueño Sanluqueño

AI correctly predicted the Ibiza win.

The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ibiza Ibiza ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Ibiza higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Ibiza -26.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ibiza 41.8% 68.5% -26.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 20.2% +5.5 pp Model Higher
Sanluqueño 32.6% 11.3% +21.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Ibiza's win probability at 68.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 26.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Ibiza win 4–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Ibiza higher (68.5% vs model 41.8%, 26.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Ibiza win 4–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ibiza 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Sanluqueño 32.6%
    • xG · Ibiza 1.45 — Sanluqueño 1.25
  2. May 03, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ibiza 1.34 · Draw 4.55 · Sanluqueño 8.11
    • Implied 1X2 · Ibiza 68.5% · Draw 20.2% · Sanluqueño 11.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 03, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ibiza 1.34 · Draw 4.55 · Sanluqueño 8.11
    • Implied 1X2 · Ibiza 68.5% · Draw 20.2% · Sanluqueño 11.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 03, 2026 · 15:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Ibiza win · 4–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (27 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 32/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 06, 2026 · 01:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3091054

Closing Odds 1.34
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ibiza win · Ibiza 4–0 Sanluqueño
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Eldense 38 19 12 7 69
2 Sabadell 38 18 14 6 68
3 Atlético Madrid II 38 19 10 9 67
4 Villarreal II 38 16 15 7 63
5 Europa Fc 38 16 12 10 60
6 FC Cartagena 38 15 12 11 57
7 Antequera 38 16 8 14 56
8 Algeciras 38 15 10 13 55
9 Hércules 38 14 12 12 54
10 Real Murcia 38 14 10 14 52
11 Alcorcon 38 12 15 11 51
12 Ibiza 38 13 11 14 50
13 Teruel 38 12 13 13 49
14 Gimnastic 38 13 8 17 47
15 Juventud Torremolinos 38 11 13 14 46
16 Tarazona 38 11 12 15 45
17 Real Betis II 38 12 9 17 45
18 Marbella 38 9 7 22 34
19 Sanluqueño 38 7 10 21 31
20 Sevilla Atletico 38 5 13 20 28
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Atlético Madrid II 38 64 44 +20 67
2 Eldense 38 57 39 +18 69
3 Europa Fc 38 55 50 +5 60
4 Villarreal II 38 54 32 +22 63
5 Sabadell 38 53 27 +26 68
6 Real Betis II 38 48 59 -11 45
7 Antequera 38 47 44 +3 56
8 Juventud Torremolinos 38 45 51 -6 46
9 Alcorcon 38 44 38 +6 51
10 Ibiza 38 44 38 +6 50
11 Real Murcia 38 43 40 +3 52
12 Hércules 38 43 41 +2 54
13 Algeciras 38 40 41 -1 55
14 Gimnastic 38 40 49 -9 47
15 FC Cartagena 38 37 38 -1 57
16 Marbella 38 36 55 -19 34
17 Tarazona 38 31 40 -9 45
18 Teruel 38 27 33 -6 49
19 Sanluqueño 38 27 53 -26 31
20 Sevilla Atletico 38 21 44 -23 28
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Predictions