1X2 Model EV
- Lean
- Villarreal II
- Model probability
- 43.2%
- Market probability
- 45.9%
- Difference
- -2.6 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV (P1.5)
- -10.5%
No Value Edge
Villarreal II vs Tarazona Prediction
Model leans Villarreal II, but the market disagrees — monitor only.
No Primary Bet
3.0/10
OddsGPT AI Confidence Score measures prediction reliability using AI probability, market signals, xG data, and performance indicators. A higher score reflects stronger model confidence and data support, helping users identify higher-quality opportunities.
OddsGPT AI Confidence Score measures prediction reliability using AI probability, market signals, xG data, and performance indicators. A higher score reflects stronger model confidence and data support, helping users identify higher-quality opportunities.
Reason
Market Conflict
Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.
Other factors
- Market Quality Risk
Consensus EV
-1.9%
Calculated using a market-adjusted probability. The model probability is partially adjusted toward market expectation to reduce false positives.
Decision Model vs Market Gap
2.6 pp
Difference between the Decision Model probability and the no-vig market probability for the selected outcome.
Reliability
60/100 · Moderate
Reliability measures the quality of the prediction signal. It considers: • model validation • market alignment • data quality • bookmaker coverage • market movement consistency It does not represent the probability of winning.
Login to see the full betting verdict
Sign in free to unlock the Final betting verdict — which markets pass, where +EV may exist, and steam warnings.
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.
Prediction Overview
Base Prediction Model
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
Raw match outcome probabilities from the xG-based scoring model.
Decision Model vs Market
The Decision Model applies additional calibration (including low-score correlation adjustments) to produce the probability used by the Decision Engine for value calculation, EV estimation, and Primary Bet decisions.
The Decision Model applies additional calibration (including low-score correlation adjustments) to produce the probability used by the Decision Engine for value calculation, EV estimation, and Primary Bet decisions.
| Decision Model | 43.2% |
| Market (no-vig) | 45.9% |
| Difference | +2.6 pp |
The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Villarreal II.
Why Is The Bet Blocked?
Positive factors
- ✓Clear directional model signal: Villarreal II
Risk factors
- ✗Market pricing conflicts with the model favourite
- ✗Outlier price excluded from Primary+41% EV → consensus -1.9%
Market Intelligence
Market move · Draw · ↓ -6.5%
Breadth
13/13
Books moving same direction
188Bet
↓ -16.6%
SBO Sharp
↓ -14.3%
10Bet
↓ -12.7%
Betano
↓ -10.8%
Superbet
↓ -10.8%
Pinnacle Sharp
↓ -9.6%
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -6.5%
William Hill
↓ -6.4%
1xBet
↓ -5.0%
Marathonbet
↓ -5.0%
Dafabet
↓ -4.8%
Unibet
↓ -4.8%
Betfair Sharp
↓ -3.3%
Move Score
55 (B)
Move Score (0–100) grades how strong a market move is — steam (shortening) or drift (lengthening). A+ · ≥75 with 3+ books reacting — strongest multi-book conviction A · ≥60 with 2+ books — strong multi-book signal B · ≥40 — moderate move; confirmation incomplete C · Below 40, dead/illiquid, or volatile — limited conviction
PhaseSharp repricing
StatusSharp-led move
CLVWaiting for Close
Ref bookBet365
⚠ Market moved toward Draw while the model still favours another side.
Market Decisions (Model vs Market)
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV.
Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV. Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Over / Under 2.5
- Lean
- Over 2.5
- Model probability (Over)
- 51.1%
- Market probability (Over)
- —
- Difference
- —
- Risk-adjusted EV
- —
No Value Edge
Total Goals (Model)
BTTS (Yes)
- Lean
- Yes
- Model probability
- 56.4%
- Market probability
- —
- Difference
- —
- Risk-adjusted EV
- —
No Value Edge
BTTS Yes 56.4%
BTTS No 43.6%
Correct Score
- Top Score
- 1-1
- Model probability (1-1)
- 12.1%
- Market probability (1-1)
- —
- Difference
- —
- EV @ Market Odds
- —
No Value
Top 5 Model Scores
- 1-1 12.1%
- 1-0 9.8%
- 2-1 9.0%
- 0-1 8.1%
- 1-2 7.4%
Match Phase: Live · HT
Decision Lifecycle
Current stage: Closing unavailable
-
Prediction Generated
-
Market ComparedEntry 2.9
-
Validation Passed
-
Closing RecordedClosing Unavailable No complete pre-match closing snapshot
-
CLV EvaluatedCLV Pending Requires closing line after full time
Final Verdict
No Primary Bet
The Decision Model estimates Villarreal II at 43.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.9%.
Decision Summary
- Decision Model identifies Villarreal II as the value side (43.2%)
- Market pricing conflicts with the model lean
- Model–market disagreement blocks Primary sizing
- Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary
- Edge does not clear Primary threshold
Action
Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.
OddsGPT Decision Engine 2.5.0 · Educational framing only · Not personalised advice
Explore More Predictions Content
Get Premium Predictions for Villarreal II & Tarazona!
Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.
Subscribe Now
Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Predictions
