Predictions / Football / Switzerland. 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 / Höngg vs Tuggen

Prediction Audit: Höngg vs Tuggen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Höngg Höngg
May 09, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.45
6 1.25
xG Accuracy: 23%
Tuggen Tuggen

The model missed the final outcome (Tuggen win 2–6).

The model had projected Höngg at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 draw Tuggen ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 0-2, 1-3, 2-2 2-6 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 8 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned draw; match finished Tuggen

Market lesson

The full-time result was Tuggen win 2–6, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 03, 2026 · 04:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Höngg 1.45 — Tuggen 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Tuggen win · 2–6
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 13:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2017771

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Tuggen win · Höngg 2–6 Tuggen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1. Liga Classic - Group 3
  • Fixture: Höngg vs Tuggen
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Höngg 1.45 — Tuggen 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 32.1% · Over 2.5 67.9%); BTTS No (Yes 47.8% · No 52.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 47.8% · No 52.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (9.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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1. Liga Classic - Group 3 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 YF Juventus 30 23 4 3 73
2 Tuggen 30 19 4 7 61
3 Taverne 30 18 6 6 60
4 Wettswil-Bonstetten 30 18 5 7 59
5 Dietikon 30 12 8 10 44
6 Freienbach 30 12 7 11 43
7 Baden 30 11 8 11 41
8 Mendrisio 30 11 7 12 40
9 Winterthur II 30 10 9 11 39
10 Collina d'Oro 30 10 9 11 39
11 Kosova 30 9 9 12 36
12 St. Gallen II 30 9 5 16 35
13 Eschen / Mauren 30 7 11 12 32
14 Widnau 30 7 6 17 27
15 Höngg 30 6 7 17 25
16 SV Schaffhausen 30 3 5 22 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 YF Juventus 30 81 26 +55 73
2 Wettswil-Bonstetten 30 74 36 +38 59
3 Tuggen 30 74 52 +22 61
4 Winterthur II 30 61 53 +8 39
5 Baden 30 58 52 +6 41
6 Dietikon 30 54 47 +7 44
7 Kosova 30 54 55 -1 36
8 Taverne 30 53 31 +22 60
9 Freienbach 30 53 53 0 43
10 St. Gallen II 30 47 66 -19 35
11 Collina d'Oro 30 46 44 +2 39
12 Mendrisio 30 42 44 -2 40
13 Eschen / Mauren 30 35 51 -16 32
14 Widnau 30 34 63 -29 27
15 Höngg 30 32 62 -30 25
16 SV Schaffhausen 30 24 87 -63 14
1. Liga Classic - Group 3 Switzerland. 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 Predictions