Predictions / Football / Switzerland. 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 / Meyrin vs Chênois

Prediction Audit: Meyrin vs Chênois Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Meyrin Meyrin
May 30, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 70%
Chênois Chênois

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Meyrin at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Meyrin Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 0-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Chênois higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Chênois -24.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Meyrin 41.8% 21.3% +20.5 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 21.8% +3.9 pp Aligned
Chênois 32.6% 56.9% -24.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Chênois's win probability at 56.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 24.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Meyrin; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Meyrin by 24.4 percentage points (66.2% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 30, 2026 · 18:43 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Meyrin 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Chênois 32.6%
    • xG · Meyrin 1.45 — Chênois 1.25
  2. May 30, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Meyrin 4.20 · Draw 4.10 · Chênois 1.57
    • Implied 1X2 · Meyrin 21.3% · Draw 21.8% · Chênois 56.9%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. May 30, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Meyrin 4.20 · Draw 4.10 · Chênois 1.57
    • Implied 1X2 · Meyrin 21.3% · Draw 21.8% · Chênois 56.9%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. May 30, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (24 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 23:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3326531

Closing Odds 1.57
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Meyrin 2–2 Chênois
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 1. Liga Classic - Group 1
  • Fixture: Meyrin vs Chênois
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-30 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Meyrin 1.45 — Chênois 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 39.0% · Implied: 34.0% · Probability edge: +5.0 pts · Est. EV: +11.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 67.4% · No 32.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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1. Liga Classic - Group 1 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Servette II 30 19 4 7 61
2 Amical Saint-Prex 30 18 3 9 57
3 Chênois 30 14 11 5 53
4 Monthey 30 14 8 8 50
5 Prishtina Bern 30 15 5 10 50
6 Portalban / Gletterens 30 11 10 9 43
7 Lancy 30 12 5 13 41
8 Echallens 30 12 4 14 40
9 Naters 30 10 8 12 38
10 Stade Payerne 30 10 8 12 38
11 Meyrin 30 11 4 15 37
12 Coffrane 30 9 8 13 35
13 Sion II 30 9 7 14 34
14 La Chaux-de-Fonds 30 9 4 17 31
15 Martigny Sports 30 7 9 14 30
16 La Sarraz-Eclépens 30 7 8 15 29
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Servette II 30 82 33 +49 61
2 Monthey 30 63 49 +14 50
3 Amical Saint-Prex 30 62 44 +18 57
4 Prishtina Bern 30 57 46 +11 50
5 Naters 30 57 61 -4 38
6 Chênois 30 56 41 +15 53
7 Echallens 30 52 61 -9 40
8 Lancy 30 50 51 -1 41
9 Meyrin 30 46 52 -6 37
10 Coffrane 30 45 59 -14 35
11 Sion II 30 44 49 -5 34
12 La Sarraz-Eclépens 30 44 68 -24 29
13 Martigny Sports 30 43 59 -16 30
14 La Chaux-de-Fonds 30 43 61 -18 31
15 Stade Payerne 30 41 48 -7 38
16 Portalban / Gletterens 30 40 43 -3 43
1. Liga Classic - Group 1 Switzerland. 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 Predictions