Predictions / Football / Switzerland. 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 / Martigny Sports vs Monthey

Prediction Audit: Martigny Sports vs Monthey Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Martigny Sports Martigny Sports
May 16, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 55%
Monthey Monthey

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Martigny Sports at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Martigny Sports Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 04:48 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Martigny Sports 1.45 — Monthey 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 17:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2780303

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Martigny Sports 0–0 Monthey
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 1. Liga Classic - Group 1
  • Fixture: Martigny Sports vs Monthey
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Martigny Sports 1.45 — Monthey 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 32.1% · Over 2.5 67.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 59.2% · No 40.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 59.2% · No 40.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.1%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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1. Liga Classic - Group 1 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Servette II 30 19 4 7 61
2 Amical Saint-Prex 30 18 3 9 57
3 Chênois 30 14 11 5 53
4 Monthey 30 14 8 8 50
5 Prishtina Bern 30 15 5 10 50
6 Portalban / Gletterens 30 11 10 9 43
7 Lancy 30 12 5 13 41
8 Echallens 30 12 4 14 40
9 Naters 30 10 8 12 38
10 Stade Payerne 30 10 8 12 38
11 Meyrin 30 11 4 15 37
12 Coffrane 30 9 8 13 35
13 Sion II 30 9 7 14 34
14 La Chaux-de-Fonds 30 9 4 17 31
15 Martigny Sports 30 7 9 14 30
16 La Sarraz-Eclépens 30 7 8 15 29
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Servette II 30 82 33 +49 61
2 Monthey 30 63 49 +14 50
3 Amical Saint-Prex 30 62 44 +18 57
4 Prishtina Bern 30 57 46 +11 50
5 Naters 30 57 61 -4 38
6 Chênois 30 56 41 +15 53
7 Echallens 30 52 61 -9 40
8 Lancy 30 50 51 -1 41
9 Meyrin 30 46 52 -6 37
10 Coffrane 30 45 59 -14 35
11 Sion II 30 44 49 -5 34
12 La Sarraz-Eclépens 30 44 68 -24 29
13 Martigny Sports 30 43 59 -16 30
14 La Chaux-de-Fonds 30 43 61 -18 31
15 Stade Payerne 30 41 48 -7 38
16 Portalban / Gletterens 30 40 43 -3 43
1. Liga Classic - Group 1 Switzerland. 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 Predictions