Predictions / Football / France. National 3 - Group E / Pays de Cassel vs Neuilly sur Marne

Prediction Audit: Pays de Cassel vs Neuilly sur Marne Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pays de Cassel Pays de Cassel
May 16, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Neuilly sur Marne Neuilly sur Marne

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Pays de Cassel at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Pays de Cassel Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 1-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Pays de Cassel; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 02:47 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Pays de Cassel 1.45 — Neuilly sur Marne 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 10, 2026 · 13:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3543765

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Pays de Cassel 1–1 Neuilly sur Marne
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: National 3 - Group E
  • Fixture: Pays de Cassel vs Neuilly sur Marne
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Pays de Cassel 1.45 — Neuilly sur Marne 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 45.8% · Over 2.5 54.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 56.2% · No 43.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 56.2% · No 43.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.7%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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National 3 - Group E National 3 - Group E — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lille II 26 15 3 8 48
2 Croix Football IC 26 14 4 8 46
3 Le Pays du Valois 26 13 7 6 45
4 OCPAM 26 12 5 9 40
5 Vimy 26 11 6 9 39
6 Olympique St Quentin 26 10 7 9 37
7 Drancy 26 10 5 11 35
8 Gazelec FC Ajaccio 26 9 7 10 34
9 Metz II 26 10 3 13 33
10 Balagne 26 9 6 11 33
11 Neuilly sur Marne 26 8 7 11 31
12 Pays de Cassel 26 7 8 11 29
13 Amiens SC II 26 8 5 13 29
14 Reims II 26 5 9 12 20
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lille II 26 56 34 +22 48
2 Le Pays du Valois 26 42 26 +16 45
3 Drancy 26 42 36 +6 35
4 Vimy 26 38 33 +5 39
5 Metz II 26 38 43 -5 33
6 Croix Football IC 26 37 20 +17 46
7 Gazelec FC Ajaccio 26 32 36 -4 34
8 Amiens SC II 26 31 44 -13 29
9 Neuilly sur Marne 26 30 42 -12 31
10 OCPAM 26 29 28 +1 40
11 Pays de Cassel 26 29 44 -15 29
12 Olympique St Quentin 26 28 26 +2 37
13 Balagne 26 27 28 -1 33
14 Reims II 26 21 40 -19 20