Predictions / Football / France. National 3 - Group D / C' Chartres vs Oissel

Prediction Audit: C' Chartres vs Oissel Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

C' Chartres C' Chartres
May 16, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Oissel Oissel

AI correctly predicted the C' Chartres win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 C' Chartres C' Chartres ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (C' Chartres win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 02:44 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · C' Chartres 1.45 — Oissel 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result C' Chartres win · 1–0
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 08:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1571719

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result C' Chartres win · C' Chartres 1–0 Oissel
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: National 3 - Group D
  • Fixture: C' Chartres vs Oissel
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): C' Chartres 1.45 — Oissel 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 43.4% · Over 2.5 56.6%); BTTS Yes (Yes 65.2% · No 34.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 65.2% · No 34.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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National 3 - Group D National 3 - Group D — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Racing Colombes 92 26 16 8 2 56
2 Aubervilliers 26 12 9 5 45
3 Bastia II 26 12 7 7 43
4 Linas-Montlhery 26 11 8 7 41
5 C' Chartres 26 10 8 8 38
6 Versailles II 26 11 5 10 38
7 Oissel 26 10 6 10 36
8 Sainte Geneviève 26 10 2 14 32
9 Caen II 26 9 5 12 32
10 Havre Caucriauville 26 7 9 10 30
11 Trouville Deauville 26 7 8 11 29
12 St Ouen l'Aumône 26 7 7 12 28
13 Dives-Cabourg 26 6 8 12 26
14 Brétigny Foot 26 5 8 13 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Racing Colombes 92 26 54 21 +33 56
2 Linas-Montlhery 26 46 37 +9 41
3 C' Chartres 26 45 38 +7 38
4 Bastia II 26 44 30 +14 43
5 Versailles II 26 38 34 +4 38
6 Sainte Geneviève 26 35 40 -5 32
7 Dives-Cabourg 26 32 41 -9 26
8 Aubervilliers 26 31 22 +9 45
9 Havre Caucriauville 26 30 30 0 30
10 Caen II 26 29 34 -5 32
11 Oissel 26 28 37 -9 36
12 St Ouen l'Aumône 26 28 51 -23 28
13 Trouville Deauville 26 27 37 -10 29
14 Brétigny Foot 26 27 42 -15 23