Predictions / Football / France. National 3 - Group C / Drapeau Fougères vs Cesson

Prediction Audit: Drapeau Fougères vs Cesson Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Drapeau Fougères Drapeau Fougères
May 09, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 55%
Cesson Cesson

The model missed the final outcome (Cesson win 0–2).

The model had projected Drapeau Fougères at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 draw Cesson ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 0-2 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned draw; match finished Cesson

Market lesson

The full-time result was Cesson win 0–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 03, 2026 · 02:31 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Drapeau Fougères 1.45 — Cesson 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Cesson win · 0–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 20:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2789938

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Cesson win · Drapeau Fougères 0–2 Cesson
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: National 3 - Group C
  • Fixture: Drapeau Fougères vs Cesson
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Drapeau Fougères 1.45 — Cesson 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 54.4% · Over 2.5 45.6%); BTTS No (Yes 36.1% · No 63.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 36.1% · No 63.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (12.3%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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National 3 - Group C National 3 - Group C — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Pontivy GSI 26 16 8 2 56
2 Vire 26 15 8 3 53
3 Vitré 26 9 12 5 39
4 Laval II 26 12 3 11 39
5 Guingamp II 26 10 5 11 35
6 Cesson 26 9 7 10 34
7 Lannion 26 8 9 9 33
8 Brest II 26 8 8 10 32
9 Saint-Pierre Milizac 26 8 8 10 32
10 Alençon 26 7 9 10 30
11 Rennes II 26 6 11 9 29
12 Vannes 26 8 7 11 29
13 Ergué-Gaberic 26 7 8 11 26
14 Drapeau Fougères 26 4 7 15 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Pontivy GSI 26 42 24 +18 56
2 Vire 26 41 17 +24 53
3 Alençon 26 39 53 -14 30
4 Guingamp II 26 36 33 +3 35
5 Cesson 26 35 30 +5 34
6 Lannion 26 34 31 +3 33
7 Rennes II 26 32 26 +6 29
8 Vannes 26 32 39 -7 29
9 Laval II 26 31 25 +6 39
10 Brest II 26 29 31 -2 32
11 Ergué-Gaberic 26 28 43 -15 26
12 Vitré 26 27 24 +3 39
13 Saint-Pierre Milizac 26 27 34 -7 32
14 Drapeau Fougères 26 20 43 -23 19