Predictions / Football / France. National 3 - Group B / Vendée Fontenay vs Challans

Prediction Audit: Vendée Fontenay vs Challans Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Vendée Fontenay Vendée Fontenay
Jan 24, 2026 - 17:00
2 1.49
2 1.23
xG Accuracy: 70%
Challans Challans

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Vendée Fontenay at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Vendée Fontenay Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.72) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Vendée Fontenay; match finished Draw
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · Vendée Fontenay 1.49 — Challans 1.23
  2. Jan 24, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 13:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3270949

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Vendée Fontenay 2–2 Challans
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Related Predictions

See Upcoming National 3 - Group B Matches Track Vendée Fontenay Next Match Prediction Track Challans Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Vendée Fontenay & Challans!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
National 3 - Group B National 3 - Group B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Le Poiré sur Vie 26 17 6 3 57
2 Ouest Tourangeau 26 17 5 4 56
3 Nantes II 26 15 6 5 51
4 Challans 26 12 10 4 46
5 La Châtaigneraie 26 10 9 7 39
6 Vendée Fontenay 26 9 5 12 32
7 Les Sables 26 9 5 12 32
8 Panazol 26 11 3 12 32
9 Châteauroux II 26 9 4 13 31
10 St-Philbert Gd Lieu 26 8 6 12 30
11 USSA Vertou 26 7 7 12 28
11 Les Sables-d'Olonne 10 2 4 4 10
12 Chauvigny 26 4 12 10 24
13 Angers SCO II 26 4 8 14 20
14 Châtellerault 26 4 6 16 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Challans 26 52 26 +26 46
2 Ouest Tourangeau 26 49 18 +31 56
3 Le Poiré sur Vie 26 45 24 +21 57
4 La Châtaigneraie 26 40 43 -3 39
5 Les Sables 26 39 40 -1 32
6 Nantes II 26 37 20 +17 51
7 Châteauroux II 26 37 40 -3 31
8 Panazol 26 36 35 +1 32
9 USSA Vertou 26 32 38 -6 28
10 St-Philbert Gd Lieu 26 32 44 -12 30
11 Vendée Fontenay 26 30 38 -8 32
12 Chauvigny 26 30 42 -12 24
13 Angers SCO II 26 23 37 -14 20
14 Châtellerault 26 21 58 -37 18
15 Les Sables-d'Olonne 10 14 16 -2 10