Predictions / Football / France. National 3 - Group A / Agde vs Alberes Argelès

Prediction Audit: Agde vs Alberes Argelès Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Agde Agde
May 09, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 80%
Alberes Argelès Alberes Argelès

AI correctly predicted the Agde win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Agde Agde ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Agde win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 03, 2026 · 02:25 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Agde 1.45 — Alberes Argelès 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Agde win · 2–1
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 16:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3058911

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Agde win · Agde 2–1 Alberes Argelès
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: National 3 - Group A
  • Fixture: Agde vs Alberes Argelès
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 35.0% · Away 30.0%
  • xG (showing): Agde 1.45 — Alberes Argelès 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 55.7% · Over 2.5 44.3%); BTTS No (Yes 31.6% · No 68.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 31.6% · No 68.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.9%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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National 3 - Group A National 3 - Group A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tarbes 26 14 8 4 47
2 Canet Roussillon 26 12 9 5 45
3 Colomiers 26 13 6 7 43
4 Onet-le-Château 26 11 6 9 39
5 Pau II 26 10 7 9 37
6 Anglet Genets 26 12 7 7 37
7 Bassin d'Arcachon Sud 26 9 9 8 36
8 Toulouse II 26 9 6 11 33
9 Castanet 26 8 8 10 32
10 Blagnac 26 8 8 10 29
11 Lège-Cap-Ferret 26 6 10 10 28
12 SAG Cestas 26 6 10 10 28
13 Agde 26 6 6 14 24
14 Alberes Argelès 26 5 6 15 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tarbes 26 52 26 +26 47
2 Colomiers 26 47 42 +5 43
3 Anglet Genets 26 41 28 +13 37
4 Onet-le-Château 26 41 41 0 39
5 Bassin d'Arcachon Sud 26 38 36 +2 36
6 Lège-Cap-Ferret 26 38 53 -15 28
7 Canet Roussillon 26 37 22 +15 45
8 Blagnac 26 35 34 +1 29
9 Pau II 26 32 26 +6 37
10 Toulouse II 26 32 28 +4 33
11 Castanet 26 27 32 -5 32
12 Alberes Argelès 26 24 40 -16 21
13 Agde 26 23 43 -20 24
14 SAG Cestas 26 22 38 -16 28