Predictions / Football / France. National 2 - Group A / Bayonne vs Saumur

Prediction Audit: Bayonne vs Saumur Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bayonne Bayonne
May 16, 2026 - 16:00
3 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 53%
Saumur Saumur

AI correctly predicted the Bayonne win.

The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Bayonne Bayonne ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Bayonne win 3–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 02:30 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Bayonne 1.45 — Saumur 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Bayonne win · 3–2
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 00:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1519922

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bayonne win · Bayonne 3–2 Saumur
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: National 2 - Group A
  • Fixture: Bayonne vs Saumur
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Bayonne 1.45 — Saumur 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 49.4% · Over 2.5 50.6%); BTTS No (Yes 43.4% · No 56.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 43.4% · No 56.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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National 2 - Group A National 2 - Group A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 La Roche VF 30 19 8 3 65
2 Bordeaux 30 19 5 6 62
3 Bayonne 30 17 4 9 55
4 Saint-Malo 30 13 11 6 50
5 Les Herbiers 30 14 7 9 49
6 Angoulême 30 11 10 9 43
7 Dinan Léhon 30 12 5 13 41
8 Avranches 30 10 10 10 40
9 Chauray 30 11 5 14 38
10 Saint-Colomban Locminé 30 9 10 11 37
11 Montlouis 30 7 10 13 31
12 Lorient II 30 9 5 16 31
13 Châteaubriant 30 8 6 16 30
14 Granville 30 6 11 13 29
15 Saumur 30 6 10 14 28
16 Poitiers 30 5 11 14 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 La Roche VF 30 61 27 +34 65
2 Bordeaux 30 51 28 +23 62
3 Avranches 30 46 41 +5 40
4 Les Herbiers 30 45 33 +12 49
5 Dinan Léhon 30 44 45 -1 41
6 Saint-Malo 30 43 29 +14 50
7 Bayonne 30 42 27 +15 55
8 Montlouis 30 42 50 -8 31
9 Lorient II 30 38 51 -13 31
10 Saumur 30 37 56 -19 28
11 Chauray 30 35 38 -3 38
12 Angoulême 30 33 36 -3 43
13 Granville 30 32 41 -9 29
14 Saint-Colomban Locminé 30 31 34 -3 37
15 Châteaubriant 30 25 47 -22 30
16 Poitiers 30 21 43 -22 25
National 2 - Group A France. National 2 - Group A Predictions