Predictions / Football / France. National 2 - Group A / Les Herbiers vs Châteaubriant

Prediction Audit: Les Herbiers vs Châteaubriant Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Les Herbiers Les Herbiers
May 16, 2026 - 16:00
3 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 46%
Châteaubriant Châteaubriant

AI correctly predicted the Les Herbiers win.

The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Les Herbiers Les Herbiers ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Les Herbiers higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Les Herbiers -12.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Les Herbiers 41.8% 54.4% -12.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 24.8% +0.9 pp Aligned
Châteaubriant 32.6% 20.8% +11.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Les Herbiers's win probability at 54.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 12.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Les Herbiers win 3–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Les Herbiers than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Les Herbiers higher (54.5% vs model 41.8%, 12.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Les Herbiers win 3–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Les Herbiers 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Châteaubriant 32.6%
    • xG · Les Herbiers 1.45 — Châteaubriant 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Les Herbiers 1.63 · Draw 3.58 · Châteaubriant 4.27
    • Implied 1X2 · Les Herbiers 54.4% · Draw 24.8% · Châteaubriant 20.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 16, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Les Herbiers 1.63 · Draw 3.58 · Châteaubriant 4.27
    • Implied 1X2 · Les Herbiers 54.4% · Draw 24.8% · Châteaubriant 20.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 16, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Les Herbiers win · 3–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 36/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1883306

Closing Odds 1.63
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Les Herbiers win · Les Herbiers 3–0 Châteaubriant
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: National 2 - Group A
  • Fixture: Les Herbiers vs Châteaubriant
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Les Herbiers 1.45 — Châteaubriant 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 58.1% · Implied: 47.0% · Probability edge: +11.1 pts · Est. EV: +19.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 41.9% · No 58.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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National 2 - Group A National 2 - Group A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 La Roche VF 30 19 8 3 65
2 Bordeaux 30 19 5 6 62
3 Bayonne 30 17 4 9 55
4 Saint-Malo 30 13 11 6 50
5 Les Herbiers 30 14 7 9 49
6 Angoulême 30 11 10 9 43
7 Dinan Léhon 30 12 5 13 41
8 Avranches 30 10 10 10 40
9 Chauray 30 11 5 14 38
10 Saint-Colomban Locminé 30 9 10 11 37
11 Montlouis 30 7 10 13 31
12 Lorient II 30 9 5 16 31
13 Châteaubriant 30 8 6 16 30
14 Granville 30 6 11 13 29
15 Saumur 30 6 10 14 28
16 Poitiers 30 5 11 14 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 La Roche VF 30 61 27 +34 65
2 Bordeaux 30 51 28 +23 62
3 Avranches 30 46 41 +5 40
4 Les Herbiers 30 45 33 +12 49
5 Dinan Léhon 30 44 45 -1 41
6 Saint-Malo 30 43 29 +14 50
7 Bayonne 30 42 27 +15 55
8 Montlouis 30 42 50 -8 31
9 Lorient II 30 38 51 -13 31
10 Saumur 30 37 56 -19 28
11 Chauray 30 35 38 -3 38
12 Angoulême 30 33 36 -3 43
13 Granville 30 32 41 -9 29
14 Saint-Colomban Locminé 30 31 34 -3 37
15 Châteaubriant 30 25 47 -22 30
16 Poitiers 30 21 43 -22 25
National 2 - Group A France. National 2 - Group A Predictions