Predictions / Football / France. National 2 - Group A / Lorient II vs Poitiers

Prediction Audit: Lorient II vs Poitiers Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Lorient II Lorient II
May 16, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Poitiers Poitiers

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Lorient II at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Lorient II Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Poitiers considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Poitiers +7.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Lorient II 41.8% 48.5% -6.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 26.6% -1.0 pp Aligned
Poitiers 32.6% 24.9% +7.7 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Poitiers's win probability at 32.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.9%, a difference of 7.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Poitiers.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned Lorient II; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Lorient II by 7.7 percentage points (34.1% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Lorient II 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Poitiers 32.6%
    • xG · Lorient II 1.45 — Poitiers 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Lorient II 1.83 · Draw 3.33 · Poitiers 3.57
    • Implied 1X2 · Lorient II 48.5% · Draw 26.6% · Poitiers 24.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 16, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Lorient II 1.83 · Draw 3.33 · Poitiers 3.57
    • Implied 1X2 · Lorient II 48.5% · Draw 26.6% · Poitiers 24.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 16, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 61/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 00:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2099321

Closing Odds 3.57
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Lorient II 1–1 Poitiers
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: National 2 - Group A
  • Fixture: Lorient II vs Poitiers
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Lorient II 1.45 — Poitiers 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 59.6% · Implied: 45.9% · Probability edge: +13.7 pts · Est. EV: +23.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 40.4% · No 59.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.8%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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National 2 - Group A National 2 - Group A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 La Roche VF 30 19 8 3 65
2 Bordeaux 30 19 5 6 62
3 Bayonne 30 17 4 9 55
4 Saint-Malo 30 13 11 6 50
5 Les Herbiers 30 14 7 9 49
6 Angoulême 30 11 10 9 43
7 Dinan Léhon 30 12 5 13 41
8 Avranches 30 10 10 10 40
9 Chauray 30 11 5 14 38
10 Saint-Colomban Locminé 30 9 10 11 37
11 Montlouis 30 7 10 13 31
12 Lorient II 30 9 5 16 31
13 Châteaubriant 30 8 6 16 30
14 Granville 30 6 11 13 29
15 Saumur 30 6 10 14 28
16 Poitiers 30 5 11 14 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 La Roche VF 30 61 27 +34 65
2 Bordeaux 30 51 28 +23 62
3 Avranches 30 46 41 +5 40
4 Les Herbiers 30 45 33 +12 49
5 Dinan Léhon 30 44 45 -1 41
6 Saint-Malo 30 43 29 +14 50
7 Bayonne 30 42 27 +15 55
8 Montlouis 30 42 50 -8 31
9 Lorient II 30 38 51 -13 31
10 Saumur 30 37 56 -19 28
11 Chauray 30 35 38 -3 38
12 Angoulême 30 33 36 -3 43
13 Granville 30 32 41 -9 29
14 Saint-Colomban Locminé 30 31 34 -3 37
15 Châteaubriant 30 25 47 -22 30
16 Poitiers 30 21 43 -22 25
National 2 - Group A France. National 2 - Group A Predictions