Predictions / Football / France. National 2 - Group A / Châteaubriant vs Bayonne

Prediction Audit: Châteaubriant vs Bayonne Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Châteaubriant Châteaubriant
May 09, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 80%
Bayonne Bayonne

AI correctly predicted the Châteaubriant win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Châteaubriant Châteaubriant ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 0-0, 1-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Bayonne higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Bayonne -8.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Châteaubriant 41.8% 36.7% +5.0 pp Model Higher
Draw 25.7% 22.1% +3.6 pp Aligned
Bayonne 32.6% 41.1% -8.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Bayonne's win probability at 41.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 8.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Châteaubriant win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Bayonne. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Châteaubriant higher (50.4% vs model 41.8%, 8.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Châteaubriant win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Châteaubriant 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Bayonne 32.6%
    • xG · Châteaubriant 1.45 — Bayonne 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Châteaubriant 2.42 · Draw 4.02 · Bayonne 2.16
    • Implied 1X2 · Châteaubriant 36.7% · Draw 22.1% · Bayonne 41.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 09, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Châteaubriant 2.42 · Draw 4.02 · Bayonne 2.16
    • Implied 1X2 · Châteaubriant 36.7% · Draw 22.1% · Bayonne 41.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 09, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Châteaubriant win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 19/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 16:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3449385

Closing Odds 2.16
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Châteaubriant win · Châteaubriant 2–1 Bayonne
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: National 2 - Group A
  • Fixture: Châteaubriant vs Bayonne
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Châteaubriant 1.45 — Bayonne 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 61.7% · Implied: 49.3% · Probability edge: +12.4 pts · Est. EV: +18.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 38.3% · No 61.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (15.3%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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National 2 - Group A National 2 - Group A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 La Roche VF 30 19 8 3 65
2 Bordeaux 30 19 5 6 62
3 Bayonne 30 17 4 9 55
4 Saint-Malo 30 13 11 6 50
5 Les Herbiers 30 14 7 9 49
6 Angoulême 30 11 10 9 43
7 Dinan Léhon 30 12 5 13 41
8 Avranches 30 10 10 10 40
9 Chauray 30 11 5 14 38
10 Saint-Colomban Locminé 30 9 10 11 37
11 Montlouis 30 7 10 13 31
12 Lorient II 30 9 5 16 31
13 Châteaubriant 30 8 6 16 30
14 Granville 30 6 11 13 29
15 Saumur 30 6 10 14 28
16 Poitiers 30 5 11 14 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 La Roche VF 30 61 27 +34 65
2 Bordeaux 30 51 28 +23 62
3 Avranches 30 46 41 +5 40
4 Les Herbiers 30 45 33 +12 49
5 Dinan Léhon 30 44 45 -1 41
6 Saint-Malo 30 43 29 +14 50
7 Bayonne 30 42 27 +15 55
8 Montlouis 30 42 50 -8 31
9 Lorient II 30 38 51 -13 31
10 Saumur 30 37 56 -19 28
11 Chauray 30 35 38 -3 38
12 Angoulême 30 33 36 -3 43
13 Granville 30 32 41 -9 29
14 Saint-Colomban Locminé 30 31 34 -3 37
15 Châteaubriant 30 25 47 -22 30
16 Poitiers 30 21 43 -22 25
National 2 - Group A France. National 2 - Group A Predictions