Predictions / Football / France. National 2 - Group A / La Roche VF vs Chauray

Prediction Audit: La Roche VF vs Chauray Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

La Roche VF La Roche VF
May 09, 2026 - 16:00
4 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 46%
Chauray Chauray

AI correctly predicted the La Roche VF win.

The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 La Roche VF La Roche VF ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices La Roche VF higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: La Roche VF -24.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
La Roche VF 41.8% 66.2% -24.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 21.1% +4.6 pp Aligned
Chauray 32.6% 12.7% +19.9 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates La Roche VF's win probability at 66.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 24.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (La Roche VF win 4–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced La Roche VF higher (66.3% vs model 41.8%, 24.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (La Roche VF win 4–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · La Roche VF 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Chauray 32.6%
    • xG · La Roche VF 1.45 — Chauray 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · La Roche VF 1.34 · Draw 4.21 · Chauray 7.01
    • Implied 1X2 · La Roche VF 66.2% · Draw 21.1% · Chauray 12.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 09, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · La Roche VF 1.34 · Draw 4.21 · Chauray 7.01
    • Implied 1X2 · La Roche VF 66.2% · Draw 21.1% · Chauray 12.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 09, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result La Roche VF win · 4–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (24 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 08:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1573563

Closing Odds 1.34
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result La Roche VF win · La Roche VF 4–1 Chauray
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: National 2 - Group A
  • Fixture: La Roche VF vs Chauray
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): La Roche VF 1.45 — Chauray 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 46.9% · No 53.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 46.9% · No 53.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (11.9%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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National 2 - Group A National 2 - Group A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 La Roche VF 30 19 8 3 65
2 Bordeaux 30 19 5 6 62
3 Bayonne 30 17 4 9 55
4 Saint-Malo 30 13 11 6 50
5 Les Herbiers 30 14 7 9 49
6 Angoulême 30 11 10 9 43
7 Dinan Léhon 30 12 5 13 41
8 Avranches 30 10 10 10 40
9 Chauray 30 11 5 14 38
10 Saint-Colomban Locminé 30 9 10 11 37
11 Montlouis 30 7 10 13 31
12 Lorient II 30 9 5 16 31
13 Châteaubriant 30 8 6 16 30
14 Granville 30 6 11 13 29
15 Saumur 30 6 10 14 28
16 Poitiers 30 5 11 14 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 La Roche VF 30 61 27 +34 65
2 Bordeaux 30 51 28 +23 62
3 Avranches 30 46 41 +5 40
4 Les Herbiers 30 45 33 +12 49
5 Dinan Léhon 30 44 45 -1 41
6 Saint-Malo 30 43 29 +14 50
7 Bayonne 30 42 27 +15 55
8 Montlouis 30 42 50 -8 31
9 Lorient II 30 38 51 -13 31
10 Saumur 30 37 56 -19 28
11 Chauray 30 35 38 -3 38
12 Angoulême 30 33 36 -3 43
13 Granville 30 32 41 -9 29
14 Saint-Colomban Locminé 30 31 34 -3 37
15 Châteaubriant 30 25 47 -22 30
16 Poitiers 30 21 43 -22 25
National 2 - Group A France. National 2 - Group A Predictions