Predictions / Football / France. National 2 - Group C / Fréjus St-Raphaël vs Grasse

Prediction Audit: Fréjus St-Raphaël vs Grasse Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Fréjus St-Raphaël Fréjus St-Raphaël
May 16, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Grasse Grasse

AI correctly predicted the Fréjus St-Raphaël win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Fréjus St-Raphaël Fréjus St-Raphaël ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 1-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Fréjus St-Raphaël +3.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Fréjus St-Raphaël 41.8% 37.8% +3.9 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 28.2% -2.6 pp Aligned
Grasse 32.6% 33.9% -1.4 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Fréjus St-Raphaël win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Fréjus St-Raphaël win 1–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Fréjus St-Raphaël 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Grasse 32.6%
    • xG · Fréjus St-Raphaël 1.45 — Grasse 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Fréjus St-Raphaël 2.35 · Draw 3.15 · Grasse 2.62
    • Implied 1X2 · Fréjus St-Raphaël 37.8% · Draw 28.2% · Grasse 33.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 16, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Fréjus St-Raphaël 2.35 · Draw 3.15 · Grasse 2.62
    • Implied 1X2 · Fréjus St-Raphaël 37.8% · Draw 28.2% · Grasse 33.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 16, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Fréjus St-Raphaël win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 80/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 17:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3199062

Closing Odds 2.35
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Fréjus St-Raphaël win · Fréjus St-Raphaël 1–0 Grasse
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: National 2 - Group C
  • Fixture: Fréjus St-Raphaël vs Grasse
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Fréjus St-Raphaël 1.45 — Grasse 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 45.8% · Over 2.5 54.2%); BTTS No (Yes 47.4% · No 52.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 47.4% · No 52.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.7%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming National 2 - Group C Matches Track Fréjus St-Raphaël Next Match Prediction Track Grasse Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Fréjus St-Raphaël & Grasse!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
National 2 - Group C National 2 - Group C — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cannes 31 17 10 4 61
2 Nimes 30 18 5 7 59
3 St Maur Lusitanos 30 15 10 5 55
4 Rumilly Vallières 30 13 8 9 47
5 Hyères 31 11 13 7 46
6 Andrézieux 30 12 9 9 45
7 Istres 30 11 10 9 43
8 Creteil 30 12 7 11 43
9 Chasselay MDA 30 11 8 11 41
10 Grasse 30 9 9 12 36
11 Fréjus St-Raphaël 30 9 8 13 35
12 Limonest 30 9 7 14 34
13 Toulon 30 8 10 12 34
14 Bobigny 30 7 11 12 32
15 Saint-Priest 30 7 9 14 30
16 Rousset-Ste Victoire 30 2 6 22 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cannes 31 56 33 +23 61
2 Rumilly Vallières 30 49 36 +13 47
3 Andrézieux 30 48 33 +15 45
4 Nimes 30 46 25 +21 59
5 Istres 30 42 32 +10 43
6 Grasse 30 41 42 -1 36
7 St Maur Lusitanos 30 40 24 +16 55
8 Hyères 31 39 30 +9 46
9 Chasselay MDA 30 38 46 -8 41
10 Toulon 30 38 47 -9 34
11 Fréjus St-Raphaël 30 37 50 -13 35
12 Creteil 30 36 34 +2 43
13 Limonest 30 36 49 -13 34
14 Saint-Priest 30 35 50 -15 30
15 Bobigny 30 29 31 -2 32
16 Rousset-Ste Victoire 30 28 76 -48 12
National 2 - Group C France. National 2 - Group C Predictions