Predictions / Football / France. National 2 - Group C / Limonest vs Nimes

Prediction Audit: Limonest vs Nimes Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Limonest Limonest
May 16, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 53%
Nimes Nimes

The model missed the final outcome (Nimes win 2–3).

The model had projected Limonest at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Limonest Nimes ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Nimes higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Nimes -28.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Limonest 41.8% 15.1% +26.6 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 23.7% +2.0 pp Aligned
Nimes 32.6% 61.2% -28.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Nimes's win probability at 61.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 28.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Nimes win 2–3.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Limonest; match finished Nimes

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Limonest by 28.6 percentage points (70.4% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Limonest 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Nimes 32.6%
    • xG · Limonest 1.45 — Nimes 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Limonest 5.86 · Draw 3.75 · Nimes 1.45
    • Implied 1X2 · Limonest 15.1% · Draw 23.7% · Nimes 61.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 16, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Limonest 5.86 · Draw 3.75 · Nimes 1.45
    • Implied 1X2 · Limonest 15.1% · Draw 23.7% · Nimes 61.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 16, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Nimes win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (29 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 13/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 10, 2026 · 22:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3584079

Closing Odds 1.45
AI Fair Odds 2.39
CLV Pending
Final Result Nimes win · Limonest 2–3 Nimes
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 41.8%
  • Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: National 2 - Group C
  • Fixture: Limonest vs Nimes
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Limonest 1.45 — Nimes 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.9% · Implied: 46.8% · Probability edge: +8.1 pts · Est. EV: +7.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.9% · No 45.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (12.7%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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National 2 - Group C National 2 - Group C — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cannes 31 17 10 4 61
2 Nimes 30 18 5 7 59
3 St Maur Lusitanos 30 15 10 5 55
4 Rumilly Vallières 30 13 8 9 47
5 Hyères 31 11 13 7 46
6 Andrézieux 30 12 9 9 45
7 Istres 30 11 10 9 43
8 Creteil 30 12 7 11 43
9 Chasselay MDA 30 11 8 11 41
10 Grasse 30 9 9 12 36
11 Fréjus St-Raphaël 30 9 8 13 35
12 Limonest 30 9 7 14 34
13 Toulon 30 8 10 12 34
14 Bobigny 30 7 11 12 32
15 Saint-Priest 30 7 9 14 30
16 Rousset-Ste Victoire 30 2 6 22 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cannes 31 56 33 +23 61
2 Rumilly Vallières 30 49 36 +13 47
3 Andrézieux 30 48 33 +15 45
4 Nimes 30 46 25 +21 59
5 Istres 30 42 32 +10 43
6 Grasse 30 41 42 -1 36
7 St Maur Lusitanos 30 40 24 +16 55
8 Hyères 31 39 30 +9 46
9 Chasselay MDA 30 38 46 -8 41
10 Toulon 30 38 47 -9 34
11 Fréjus St-Raphaël 30 37 50 -13 35
12 Creteil 30 36 34 +2 43
13 Limonest 30 36 49 -13 34
14 Saint-Priest 30 35 50 -15 30
15 Bobigny 30 29 31 -2 32
16 Rousset-Ste Victoire 30 28 76 -48 12
National 2 - Group C France. National 2 - Group C Predictions