Prediction Audit: Hyères vs Saint-Priest Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hyères

May 16, 2026 - 16:00

4 1.45

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 46%

Saint-Priest

AI correctly predicted the Hyères win.

The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Hyères Hyères ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Hyères	41.8%	28.6%	+13.2 pp	Model Edge
Draw	25.7%	27.5%	-1.8 pp	Aligned
Saint-Priest	32.6%	44.0%	-11.4 pp	Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Hyères's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.6%, a difference of 13.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Hyères win 4–1).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Hyères.

The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Hyères more conservatively (28.6% vs model 41.8%, 13.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Hyères win 4–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

May 16, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hyères 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Saint-Priest 32.6%
- xG · Hyères 1.45 — Saint-Priest 1.25
May 16, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hyères 3.11 · Draw 3.23 · Saint-Priest 2.02
- Implied 1X2 · Hyères 28.6% · Draw 27.5% · Saint-Priest 44.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
May 16, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Hyères 3.11 · Draw 3.23 · Saint-Priest 2.02
- Implied 1X2 · Hyères 28.6% · Draw 27.5% · Saint-Priest 44.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
May 16, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Hyères win · 4–1
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (13 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 11/100

Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 18, 2026 · 11:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4491685

Closing Odds 3.11

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Hyères win · Hyères 4–1 Saint-Priest

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: National 2 - Group C
Fixture: Hyères vs Saint-Priest
Kickoff: 2026-05-16 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Hyères 1.45 — Saint-Priest 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 57.0% · Over 2.5 43.0%); BTTS No (Yes 49.9% · No 50.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 49.9% · No 50.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.9%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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National 2 - Group C — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Cannes	31	17	10	4	61
2	Nimes	30	18	5	7	59
3	St Maur Lusitanos	30	15	10	5	55
4	Rumilly Vallières	30	13	8	9	47
5	Hyères	31	11	13	7	46
6	Andrézieux	30	12	9	9	45
7	Istres	30	11	10	9	43
8	Creteil	30	12	7	11	43
9	Chasselay MDA	30	11	8	11	41
10	Grasse	30	9	9	12	36
11	Fréjus St-Raphaël	30	9	8	13	35
12	Limonest	30	9	7	14	34
13	Toulon	30	8	10	12	34
14	Bobigny	30	7	11	12	32
15	Saint-Priest	30	7	9	14	30
16	Rousset-Ste Victoire	30	2	6	22	12

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Cannes	31	56	33	+23	61
2	Rumilly Vallières	30	49	36	+13	47
3	Andrézieux	30	48	33	+15	45
4	Nimes	30	46	25	+21	59
5	Istres	30	42	32	+10	43
6	Grasse	30	41	42	-1	36
7	St Maur Lusitanos	30	40	24	+16	55
8	Hyères	31	39	30	+9	46
9	Chasselay MDA	30	38	46	-8	41
10	Toulon	30	38	47	-9	34
11	Fréjus St-Raphaël	30	37	50	-13	35
12	Creteil	30	36	34	+2	43
13	Limonest	30	36	49	-13	34
14	Saint-Priest	30	35	50	-15	30
15	Bobigny	30	29	31	-2	32
16	Rousset-Ste Victoire	30	28	76	-48	12