Predictions / Football / Germany. Oberliga - Mittelrhein / Bornheim vs VfL Vichttal

Prediction Audit: Bornheim vs VfL Vichttal Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bornheim Bornheim
May 31, 2026 - 13:30
3 1.45
5 1.25
xG Accuracy: 23%
VfL Vichttal VfL Vichttal

The model missed the final outcome (VfL Vichttal win 3–5).

The model had projected Bornheim at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bornheim VfL Vichttal ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-3 3-5 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 8 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Bornheim; match finished VfL Vichttal
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was VfL Vichttal win 3–5, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 31, 2026 · 18:24 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Bornheim 1.45 — VfL Vichttal 1.25
  2. May 31, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result VfL Vichttal win · 3–5
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 14:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3054700

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result VfL Vichttal win · Bornheim 3–5 VfL Vichttal
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Oberliga - Mittelrhein
  • Fixture: Bornheim vs VfL Vichttal
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-31 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Bornheim 1.45 — VfL Vichttal 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 24.6% · Over 2.5 75.4%); BTTS Yes (Yes 66.7% · No 33.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 66.7% · No 33.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (8.2%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Oberliga - Mittelrhein Oberliga - Mittelrhein — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Bergisch Gladbach 30 20 7 3 67
2 Eintracht Hohkeppel 30 20 4 6 64
3 Siegburger SV 30 19 6 6 62
4 SSV Merten 30 18 6 6 60
5 VfL Vichttal 30 18 6 7 59
6 Wegberg-Beeck 30 15 6 9 51
7 Frechen 30 16 2 12 50
8 Bornheim 30 14 4 12 46
9 TuS BW Königsdorf 30 14 4 12 46
10 Fortuna Köln II 30 13 6 11 45
11 Düren Merzenich 30 11 5 14 38
12 Hennef 05 30 11 2 17 35
13 Porz 30 7 4 19 25
14 Teutonia Weiden 30 4 4 22 16
15 SF Düren 30 4 2 24 14
16 Pesch 30 2 2 26 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Eintracht Hohkeppel 30 86 36 +50 64
2 Bergisch Gladbach 30 85 28 +57 67
3 SSV Merten 30 80 28 +52 60
4 VfL Vichttal 30 80 43 +37 59
5 Siegburger SV 30 75 34 +41 62
6 Frechen 30 66 54 +12 50
7 Bornheim 30 65 56 +9 46
8 Wegberg-Beeck 30 62 35 +27 51
9 Fortuna Köln II 30 62 47 +15 45
10 Porz 30 58 99 -41 25
11 TuS BW Königsdorf 30 53 54 -1 46
12 Düren Merzenich 30 49 59 -10 38
13 Hennef 05 30 45 66 -21 35
14 SF Düren 30 41 103 -62 14
15 Pesch 30 26 112 -86 8
16 Teutonia Weiden 30 25 104 -79 16
Oberliga - Mittelrhein Germany. Oberliga - Mittelrhein Predictions