The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected VfL Vichttal at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 VfL Vichttal Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · VfL Vichttal 1.45 — SF Düren 1.25
-
Mar 22, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · VfL Vichttal 0–0 SF Düren
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Oberliga - Mittelrhein — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bergisch Gladbach | 30 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 67 |
| 2 | Eintracht Hohkeppel | 30 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 64 |
| 3 | Siegburger SV | 30 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 62 |
| 4 | SSV Merten | 30 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 60 |
| 5 | VfL Vichttal | 30 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 59 |
| 6 | Wegberg-Beeck | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 51 |
| 7 | Frechen | 30 | 16 | 2 | 12 | 50 |
| 8 | Bornheim | 30 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 46 |
| 9 | TuS BW Königsdorf | 30 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 46 |
| 10 | Fortuna Köln II | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 45 |
| 11 | Düren Merzenich | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 38 |
| 12 | Hennef 05 | 30 | 11 | 2 | 17 | 35 |
| 13 | Porz | 30 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 25 |
| 14 | Teutonia Weiden | 30 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 16 |
| 15 | SF Düren | 30 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 14 |
| 16 | Pesch | 30 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 8 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eintracht Hohkeppel | 30 | 86 | 36 | +50 | 64 |
| 2 | Bergisch Gladbach | 30 | 85 | 28 | +57 | 67 |
| 3 | SSV Merten | 30 | 80 | 28 | +52 | 60 |
| 4 | VfL Vichttal | 30 | 80 | 43 | +37 | 59 |
| 5 | Siegburger SV | 30 | 75 | 34 | +41 | 62 |
| 6 | Frechen | 30 | 66 | 54 | +12 | 50 |
| 7 | Bornheim | 30 | 65 | 56 | +9 | 46 |
| 8 | Wegberg-Beeck | 30 | 62 | 35 | +27 | 51 |
| 9 | Fortuna Köln II | 30 | 62 | 47 | +15 | 45 |
| 10 | Porz | 30 | 58 | 99 | -41 | 25 |
| 11 | TuS BW Königsdorf | 30 | 53 | 54 | -1 | 46 |
| 12 | Düren Merzenich | 30 | 49 | 59 | -10 | 38 |
| 13 | Hennef 05 | 30 | 45 | 66 | -21 | 35 |
| 14 | SF Düren | 30 | 41 | 103 | -62 | 14 |
| 15 | Pesch | 30 | 26 | 112 | -86 | 8 |
| 16 | Teutonia Weiden | 30 | 25 | 104 | -79 | 16 |
