Predictions / Football / France. National 1 / Valenciennes vs Chateauroux

Prediction Audit: Valenciennes vs Chateauroux Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Valenciennes Valenciennes
May 15, 2026 - 17:30
2 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 70%
Chateauroux Chateauroux

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Valenciennes at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Valenciennes Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Chateauroux higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Chateauroux -19.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Valenciennes 41.8% 23.0% +18.7 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 25.2% +0.4 pp Aligned
Chateauroux 32.6% 51.7% -19.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Chateauroux's win probability at 51.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 19.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Chateauroux than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Valenciennes by 19.2 percentage points (61.0% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 15, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Valenciennes 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Chateauroux 32.6%
    • xG · Valenciennes 1.45 — Chateauroux 1.25
  2. May 15, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Valenciennes 4.02 · Draw 3.67 · Chateauroux 1.79
    • Implied 1X2 · Valenciennes 23.0% · Draw 25.2% · Chateauroux 51.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 15, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Valenciennes 4.02 · Draw 3.67 · Chateauroux 1.79
    • Implied 1X2 · Valenciennes 23.0% · Draw 25.2% · Chateauroux 51.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 15, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (19 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 1/100
Monitoring Confidence 18/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 21:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1932486

Closing Odds 1.79
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Valenciennes 2–2 Chateauroux
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: National 1
  • Fixture: Valenciennes vs Chateauroux
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-15 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Valenciennes 1.45 — Chateauroux 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 59.4% · Implied: 43.5% · Probability edge: +15.9 pts · Est. EV: +30.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 40.6% · No 59.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.8%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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National 1 National 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dijon 32 18 11 3 65
2 Sochaux 32 16 10 6 58
3 Rouen 32 14 13 5 55
4 Fleury 91 32 15 9 8 54
5 Versailles 32 15 8 9 53
6 Orleans 32 14 9 9 51
7 Le Puy Foot 32 12 11 9 47
8 Caen 32 8 16 8 40
9 Concarneau 32 8 14 10 38
10 Valenciennes 32 10 8 14 37
11 Aubagne 32 9 10 13 37
12 Villefranche 32 10 7 15 37
13 Quevilly 32 8 9 15 33
14 Gobelins 32 7 11 14 32
15 Bourg-en-bresse 01 32 8 7 17 31
16 Chateauroux 32 6 13 13 30
17 Stade Briochin 32 5 12 15 27
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dijon 32 52 25 +27 65
2 Sochaux 32 51 26 +25 58
3 Fleury 91 32 47 30 +17 54
4 Versailles 32 46 34 +12 53
5 Le Puy Foot 32 45 38 +7 47
6 Rouen 32 43 29 +14 55
7 Orleans 32 42 42 0 51
8 Caen 32 39 34 +5 40
9 Aubagne 32 38 46 -8 37
10 Valenciennes 32 35 44 -9 37
11 Chateauroux 32 35 49 -14 30
12 Stade Briochin 32 35 50 -15 27
13 Villefranche 32 34 45 -11 37
14 Quevilly 32 34 45 -11 33
15 Concarneau 32 32 37 -5 38
16 Gobelins 32 26 41 -15 32
17 Bourg-en-bresse 01 32 25 44 -19 31