Predictions / Football / France. National 1 / Sochaux vs Le Puy Foot

Prediction Audit: Sochaux vs Le Puy Foot Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sochaux Sochaux
May 15, 2026 - 17:30
2 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 70%
Le Puy Foot Le Puy Foot

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Sochaux at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sochaux Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Sochaux higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sochaux -15.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sochaux 41.8% 57.3% -15.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 24.0% +1.6 pp Aligned
Le Puy Foot 32.6% 18.7% +13.9 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Sochaux's win probability at 57.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 15.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Sochaux than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Sochaux; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sochaux by 15.5 percentage points (57.3% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 15, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sochaux 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Le Puy Foot 32.6%
    • xG · Sochaux 1.45 — Le Puy Foot 1.25
  2. May 15, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sochaux 1.62 · Draw 3.86 · Le Puy Foot 4.96
    • Implied 1X2 · Sochaux 57.3% · Draw 24.0% · Le Puy Foot 18.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 15, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sochaux 1.62 · Draw 3.86 · Le Puy Foot 4.96
    • Implied 1X2 · Sochaux 57.3% · Draw 24.0% · Le Puy Foot 18.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 15, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 22/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 10, 2026 · 14:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3547374

Closing Odds 1.62
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Sochaux 2–2 Le Puy Foot
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: National 1
  • Fixture: Sochaux vs Le Puy Foot
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-15 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Sochaux 1.45 — Le Puy Foot 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 55.7% · Over 2.5 44.3%); BTTS Yes (Yes 61.9% · No 38.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 61.9% · No 38.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.8%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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National 1 National 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dijon 32 18 11 3 65
2 Sochaux 32 16 10 6 58
3 Rouen 32 14 13 5 55
4 Fleury 91 32 15 9 8 54
5 Versailles 32 15 8 9 53
6 Orleans 32 14 9 9 51
7 Le Puy Foot 32 12 11 9 47
8 Caen 32 8 16 8 40
9 Concarneau 32 8 14 10 38
10 Valenciennes 32 10 8 14 37
11 Aubagne 32 9 10 13 37
12 Villefranche 32 10 7 15 37
13 Quevilly 32 8 9 15 33
14 Gobelins 32 7 11 14 32
15 Bourg-en-bresse 01 32 8 7 17 31
16 Chateauroux 32 6 13 13 30
17 Stade Briochin 32 5 12 15 27
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dijon 32 52 25 +27 65
2 Sochaux 32 51 26 +25 58
3 Fleury 91 32 47 30 +17 54
4 Versailles 32 46 34 +12 53
5 Le Puy Foot 32 45 38 +7 47
6 Rouen 32 43 29 +14 55
7 Orleans 32 42 42 0 51
8 Caen 32 39 34 +5 40
9 Aubagne 32 38 46 -8 37
10 Valenciennes 32 35 44 -9 37
11 Chateauroux 32 35 49 -14 30
12 Stade Briochin 32 35 50 -15 27
13 Villefranche 32 34 45 -11 37
14 Quevilly 32 34 45 -11 33
15 Concarneau 32 32 37 -5 38
16 Gobelins 32 26 41 -15 32
17 Bourg-en-bresse 01 32 25 44 -19 31