Predictions / Football / France. National 1 / Dijon vs Orleans

Prediction Audit: Dijon vs Orleans Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dijon Dijon
May 15, 2026 - 17:30
3 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 53%
Orleans Orleans

AI correctly predicted the Dijon win.

The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Dijon Dijon ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Dijon higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Dijon -17.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dijon 41.8% 59.0% -17.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 21.9% +3.7 pp Aligned
Orleans 32.6% 19.1% +13.5 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Dijon's win probability at 59.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 17.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Dijon win 3–2).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Dijon than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Dijon higher (59.0% vs model 41.8%, 17.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Dijon win 3–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 15, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dijon 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Orleans 32.6%
    • xG · Dijon 1.45 — Orleans 1.25
  2. May 15, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dijon 1.57 · Draw 4.22 · Orleans 4.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Dijon 59.0% · Draw 21.9% · Orleans 19.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 15, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Dijon 1.57 · Draw 4.22 · Orleans 4.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Dijon 59.0% · Draw 21.9% · Orleans 19.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 15, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Dijon win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100
Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 15:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1469689

Closing Odds 1.57
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dijon win · Dijon 3–2 Orleans
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: National 1
  • Fixture: Dijon vs Orleans
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-15 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Dijon 1.45 — Orleans 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 55.7% · Over 2.5 44.3%); BTTS Yes (Yes 57.4% · No 42.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 57.4% · No 42.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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National 1 National 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dijon 32 18 11 3 65
2 Sochaux 32 16 10 6 58
3 Rouen 32 14 13 5 55
4 Fleury 91 32 15 9 8 54
5 Versailles 32 15 8 9 53
6 Orleans 32 14 9 9 51
7 Le Puy Foot 32 12 11 9 47
8 Caen 32 8 16 8 40
9 Concarneau 32 8 14 10 38
10 Valenciennes 32 10 8 14 37
11 Aubagne 32 9 10 13 37
12 Villefranche 32 10 7 15 37
13 Quevilly 32 8 9 15 33
14 Gobelins 32 7 11 14 32
15 Bourg-en-bresse 01 32 8 7 17 31
16 Chateauroux 32 6 13 13 30
17 Stade Briochin 32 5 12 15 27
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dijon 32 52 25 +27 65
2 Sochaux 32 51 26 +25 58
3 Fleury 91 32 47 30 +17 54
4 Versailles 32 46 34 +12 53
5 Le Puy Foot 32 45 38 +7 47
6 Rouen 32 43 29 +14 55
7 Orleans 32 42 42 0 51
8 Caen 32 39 34 +5 40
9 Aubagne 32 38 46 -8 37
10 Valenciennes 32 35 44 -9 37
11 Chateauroux 32 35 49 -14 30
12 Stade Briochin 32 35 50 -15 27
13 Villefranche 32 34 45 -11 37
14 Quevilly 32 34 45 -11 33
15 Concarneau 32 32 37 -5 38
16 Gobelins 32 26 41 -15 32
17 Bourg-en-bresse 01 32 25 44 -19 31