Predictions / Football / France. National 1 / Aubagne vs Caen

Prediction Audit: Aubagne vs Caen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Aubagne Aubagne
May 15, 2026 - 17:30
3 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Caen Caen

AI correctly predicted the Aubagne win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Aubagne Aubagne ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Aubagne considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Aubagne +7.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Aubagne 41.8% 34.1% +7.7 pp Model Higher
Draw 25.7% 26.8% -1.1 pp Aligned
Caen 32.6% 39.1% -6.5 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Aubagne's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 34.1%, a difference of 7.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Aubagne win 3–1).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Aubagne.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Aubagne more conservatively (34.1% vs model 41.8%, 7.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Aubagne win 3–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 15, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Aubagne 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Caen 32.6%
    • xG · Aubagne 1.45 — Caen 1.25
  2. May 15, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Aubagne 2.74 · Draw 3.49 · Caen 2.39
    • Implied 1X2 · Aubagne 34.1% · Draw 26.8% · Caen 39.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 15, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Aubagne 2.74 · Draw 3.49 · Caen 2.39
    • Implied 1X2 · Aubagne 34.1% · Draw 26.8% · Caen 39.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 15, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Aubagne win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 21/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 01:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3229144

Closing Odds 2.74
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Aubagne win · Aubagne 3–1 Caen
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: National 1
  • Fixture: Aubagne vs Caen
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-15 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Aubagne 1.45 — Caen 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 57.0% · Implied: 41.3% · Probability edge: +15.7 pts · Est. EV: +32.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 57.4% · No 42.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.9%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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National 1 National 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dijon 32 18 11 3 65
2 Sochaux 32 16 10 6 58
3 Rouen 32 14 13 5 55
4 Fleury 91 32 15 9 8 54
5 Versailles 32 15 8 9 53
6 Orleans 32 14 9 9 51
7 Le Puy Foot 32 12 11 9 47
8 Caen 32 8 16 8 40
9 Concarneau 32 8 14 10 38
10 Valenciennes 32 10 8 14 37
11 Aubagne 32 9 10 13 37
12 Villefranche 32 10 7 15 37
13 Quevilly 32 8 9 15 33
14 Gobelins 32 7 11 14 32
15 Bourg-en-bresse 01 32 8 7 17 31
16 Chateauroux 32 6 13 13 30
17 Stade Briochin 32 5 12 15 27
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dijon 32 52 25 +27 65
2 Sochaux 32 51 26 +25 58
3 Fleury 91 32 47 30 +17 54
4 Versailles 32 46 34 +12 53
5 Le Puy Foot 32 45 38 +7 47
6 Rouen 32 43 29 +14 55
7 Orleans 32 42 42 0 51
8 Caen 32 39 34 +5 40
9 Aubagne 32 38 46 -8 37
10 Valenciennes 32 35 44 -9 37
11 Chateauroux 32 35 49 -14 30
12 Stade Briochin 32 35 50 -15 27
13 Villefranche 32 34 45 -11 37
14 Quevilly 32 34 45 -11 33
15 Concarneau 32 32 37 -5 38
16 Gobelins 32 26 41 -15 32
17 Bourg-en-bresse 01 32 25 44 -19 31