Predictions / Football / France. National 1 / Stade Briochin vs Quevilly

Prediction Audit: Stade Briochin vs Quevilly Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Stade Briochin Stade Briochin
May 09, 2026 - 17:30
3 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 46%
Quevilly Quevilly

The model missed the final outcome (Stade Briochin win 3–0).

The model had projected Stade Briochin at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 draw Stade Briochin ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw -3.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Stade Briochin 41.8% 38.6% +3.1 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 29.1% -3.4 pp Aligned
Quevilly 32.6% 32.3% +0.3 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Stade Briochin win 3–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned draw; match finished Stade Briochin

Market lesson

The full-time result was Stade Briochin win 3–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 08, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Stade Briochin 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Quevilly 32.6%
    • xG · Stade Briochin 1.45 — Quevilly 1.25
  2. May 08, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Stade Briochin 2.43 · Draw 3.23 · Quevilly 2.91
    • Implied 1X2 · Stade Briochin 38.6% · Draw 29.1% · Quevilly 32.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 08, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Stade Briochin 2.43 · Draw 3.23 · Quevilly 2.91
    • Implied 1X2 · Stade Briochin 38.6% · Draw 29.1% · Quevilly 32.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 09, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Stade Briochin win · 3–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 82/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 29, 2026 · 04:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2312164

Closing Odds 3.23
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Stade Briochin win · Stade Briochin 3–0 Quevilly
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: National 1
  • Fixture: Stade Briochin vs Quevilly
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-08 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Stade Briochin 1.45 — Quevilly 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 55.7% · Implied: 46.7% · Probability edge: +9.0 pts · Est. EV: +17.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 44.3% · No 55.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
National 1 National 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dijon 32 18 11 3 65
2 Sochaux 32 16 10 6 58
3 Rouen 32 14 13 5 55
4 Fleury 91 32 15 9 8 54
5 Versailles 32 15 8 9 53
6 Orleans 32 14 9 9 51
7 Le Puy Foot 32 12 11 9 47
8 Caen 32 8 16 8 40
9 Concarneau 32 8 14 10 38
10 Valenciennes 32 10 8 14 37
11 Aubagne 32 9 10 13 37
12 Villefranche 32 10 7 15 37
13 Quevilly 32 8 9 15 33
14 Gobelins 32 7 11 14 32
15 Bourg-en-bresse 01 32 8 7 17 31
16 Chateauroux 32 6 13 13 30
17 Stade Briochin 32 5 12 15 27
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dijon 32 52 25 +27 65
2 Sochaux 32 51 26 +25 58
3 Fleury 91 32 47 30 +17 54
4 Versailles 32 46 34 +12 53
5 Le Puy Foot 32 45 38 +7 47
6 Rouen 32 43 29 +14 55
7 Orleans 32 42 42 0 51
8 Caen 32 39 34 +5 40
9 Aubagne 32 38 46 -8 37
10 Valenciennes 32 35 44 -9 37
11 Chateauroux 32 35 49 -14 30
12 Stade Briochin 32 35 50 -15 27
13 Villefranche 32 34 45 -11 37
14 Quevilly 32 34 45 -11 33
15 Concarneau 32 32 37 -5 38
16 Gobelins 32 26 41 -15 32
17 Bourg-en-bresse 01 32 25 44 -19 31