Predictions / Football / France. National 1 / Gobelins vs Aubagne

Prediction Audit: Gobelins vs Aubagne Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gobelins Gobelins
May 09, 2026 - 17:30
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Aubagne Aubagne

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Gobelins at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Gobelins Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Aubagne considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Aubagne +8.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Gobelins 41.8% 48.0% -6.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 28.2% -2.5 pp Aligned
Aubagne 32.6% 23.8% +8.8 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Aubagne's win probability at 32.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.8%, a difference of 8.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Aubagne.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Gobelins; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Gobelins by 8.8 percentage points (33.0% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 08, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Gobelins 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Aubagne 32.6%
    • xG · Gobelins 1.45 — Aubagne 1.25
  2. May 08, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Gobelins 1.95 · Draw 3.32 · Aubagne 3.94
    • Implied 1X2 · Gobelins 48.0% · Draw 28.2% · Aubagne 23.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 08, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Gobelins 1.95 · Draw 3.32 · Aubagne 3.94
    • Implied 1X2 · Gobelins 48.0% · Draw 28.2% · Aubagne 23.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 09, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 56/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 29, 2026 · 08:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2339631

Closing Odds 3.94
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Gobelins 1–1 Aubagne
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: National 1
  • Fixture: Gobelins vs Aubagne
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-08 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Gobelins 1.45 — Aubagne 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): draw
  • Model: 45.0% · Implied: 28.2% · Probability edge: +16.8 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 48.9% · No 51.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.2%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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National 1 National 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dijon 32 18 11 3 65
2 Sochaux 32 16 10 6 58
3 Rouen 32 14 13 5 55
4 Fleury 91 32 15 9 8 54
5 Versailles 32 15 8 9 53
6 Orleans 32 14 9 9 51
7 Le Puy Foot 32 12 11 9 47
8 Caen 32 8 16 8 40
9 Concarneau 32 8 14 10 38
10 Valenciennes 32 10 8 14 37
11 Aubagne 32 9 10 13 37
12 Villefranche 32 10 7 15 37
13 Quevilly 32 8 9 15 33
14 Gobelins 32 7 11 14 32
15 Bourg-en-bresse 01 32 8 7 17 31
16 Chateauroux 32 6 13 13 30
17 Stade Briochin 32 5 12 15 27
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dijon 32 52 25 +27 65
2 Sochaux 32 51 26 +25 58
3 Fleury 91 32 47 30 +17 54
4 Versailles 32 46 34 +12 53
5 Le Puy Foot 32 45 38 +7 47
6 Rouen 32 43 29 +14 55
7 Orleans 32 42 42 0 51
8 Caen 32 39 34 +5 40
9 Aubagne 32 38 46 -8 37
10 Valenciennes 32 35 44 -9 37
11 Chateauroux 32 35 49 -14 30
12 Stade Briochin 32 35 50 -15 27
13 Villefranche 32 34 45 -11 37
14 Quevilly 32 34 45 -11 33
15 Concarneau 32 32 37 -5 38
16 Gobelins 32 26 41 -15 32
17 Bourg-en-bresse 01 32 25 44 -19 31