Prediction Audit: Raslavice vs Lipany Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Raslavice

May 30, 2026 - 13:00

2 1.45

2 1.25

xG Accuracy: 70%

Lipany

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Raslavice at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Raslavice Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 2-2 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

1X2: model leaned Raslavice; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

May 30, 2026 · 19:11 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Raslavice 1.45 — Lipany 1.25
May 30, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Pending

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation pending

Market Compatibility 100/100

Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 02:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1536161

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Raslavice 2–2 Lipany

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: 3. liga - East
Fixture: Raslavice vs Lipany
Kickoff: 2026-05-30 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Raslavice 1.45 — Lipany 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 33.0% · Over 2.5 67.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 63.8% · No 36.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 63.8% · No 36.2%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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3. liga - East — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Humenné	26	21	5	0	68
2	Spišská Nová Ves	26	20	5	1	65
3	MSK Tesla Stropkov	26	13	5	8	44
4	Lipany	26	13	4	9	43
5	Poprad	26	11	4	11	37
6	Raslavice	26	10	5	10	35
7	Spartak Medzev	26	9	6	11	33
8	Snina	26	8	7	11	31
9	Kežmarok	26	9	4	13	31
10	Lokomotíva Košice	26	7	9	10	30
11	Košice II	26	8	5	13	29
12	Vranov nad Topľou	26	5	10	11	25
13	Slovan Sabinov	26	5	9	12	24
14	Spišské Podhradie	26	2	4	20	10

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Humenné	26	88	20	+68	68
2	Spišská Nová Ves	26	66	18	+48	65
3	MSK Tesla Stropkov	26	48	37	+11	44
4	Spartak Medzev	26	47	50	-3	33
5	Lipany	26	46	43	+3	43
6	Raslavice	26	46	45	+1	35
7	Košice II	26	43	48	-5	29
8	Kežmarok	26	42	48	-6	31
9	Poprad	26	35	34	+1	37
10	Snina	26	33	38	-5	31
11	Vranov nad Topľou	26	33	45	-12	25
12	Lokomotíva Košice	26	33	59	-26	30
13	Spišské Podhradie	26	27	81	-54	10
14	Slovan Sabinov	26	26	47	-21	24